OIL, THE DOLLAR, THE YUAN, OF THE PARADIGMS |
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Which strategy for the United States in the challenges in progress? |
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An American specialist writes in the newspaper the World of the 08.04.03 : " A present that the American forces are in Baghdad, that it is allowed to us to place the current events from the historical point of view. |
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Medjdoub Hamed Researcher |
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He is true qu’there is to repeat on L’introduction of the democracy in the 22 Arab States which account the Moslem, but to protest high and strong world that the war in the Close relation and the Middle East is a war of freedom against tyranny, C’is to fall into a reducing over-simplification. This author continues : " America must convince the populations of the Middle East which we are on their side, exactly as we convinced Lech Walesa, and Vaclav Havel, and Andreï Sakharov which we were on their side. What will take time. What will be difficult. We are conscious of worrying the terrorists, the dictators and the autocrats. We want that they are anxious. We want that they understand that America is today goes from there, and that we are side of those which they fear more, their own people. "is qu’aujourd’today ? Speech triumphant victor, which does remain ? Little thing ! Force for us to note that these slogans general public lived, they do not owe their rhetoric qu’with L’euphoria of the victory which succeeded the fall of Baghdad. This being, it is true that L’America is aujourd’today goes from there for aimings which N’have nothing to do with the Messianic aimings which appeared in April 2003. A study of the internal and external situation of L’America, context in which the military reasons and the political and economic reasons are combined, are capable to explain us why all this hostile display of the forces to the Close relation and the Middle East since 2001. And why L’American administration S’heading in its policy aventurist in spite of the vexations in his countryside in Iraq ? In 2007, the situation does not cease being degraded, L’Iran is in line of sight, the world economic situation is affected, the dollar is in fall continuous. Nothing seems able D’to stop the spiral hawser of L’euro, nor that of oil, this one N’is not far from the peaks of 1980. Europeans, by creating L’euro to release itself from the dysfunctions from the dollar and from what results from this – the American deficits –, N’did not think that their currency could be used as variable D’adjustment of world economic imbalances. To include/understand this economic process strategic qu’so much, an examination of the world economic situation initially can lead us to better apprehending the economic and financial bonds between the powers. Thus D’to light the springs which are with L’origin of the fall of the dollar and the rise of the course of oil, and of the consequences which result in the reciprocal relationship between the Western powers, the countries emergent and the oil countries. In the second time, a reflexion S’will attach to study the prospects contained in this new process, a new process which can astonish with more D’one titrates bus not only it gives a visibility of the stakes in progress, but especially tries to decipher " the strategy of the United States in the challenges in progress " 1. A world configuration macroeconomic new and full with paradoxes Here more than fifteen years that L’American economy records in a systematic way of the deficits of balance of the payments on current account. Basically related to the weakness of L’saves American and, coupled with the digging of the budget deficit, these current imbalances remained bearable a long time thanks to L’appetite of L’world economy for the public or deprived titles American, taking into account the outputs offered, but also because of the privileged situation of the dollar in the world trade. Since 2001, the American economic policy operated amazing a volte face. The valves monetarist and budgetary were open à.fond. First is controlled by the Federal Reserve (banks central American). By a movement D’an extraordinary width, the EDF brings back its principal directing rate of 6 % to 1 %, involving L’together rates in the movement, with an unquestionable impact on consumption. The second, C’is the comfortable surplus of 224,8 billion dollars inherited L’era Clinton which S’will break down and pass to 40,7 billion in 2001. In 2002, this surplus itself is replaced by an imposing deficit of 254 billion. The deficit of the American current balance which was 413 billion dollars in 2000, 386 billion in 2001, 474 billion in 2002, 530 billion in 2003, 666 billion in 2004, double in 2005, it is 804,9 billion dollars. In 2006, the current account deficit still grows hollow, it S’raises to 856,7 billion dollars (given department American Commercial). It is the fifth year of continuation which the balance of the currant accounts, which takes into account the trade foreign and the transfers of incomes, posts a deficit record. The deficit accounted for 6,5% of gross domestic product (GDP) American in 2006, which is there too a record, after 6,4% in 2005. As for the dollar, its position of world currency seriously " will be abused by the new European currency, L’euro, launched in January 1999 ". Indeed, from its low levels with 0,84 dollar in 2000, L’euro will go up to reach for the second time in mid-November 2003, its higher historical level vis-a-vis with the green ticket : 1,1956 dollar. It will have increased by 40%. In February 2004, L’euro is with 1,30 dollar. Between 2004 and 2006, it is maintained with some exceptions close above its historical course of 1999. November 08, 2007, L’euro knows a fulgurating rise, it reaches a new record of 1,4731 dollar. But monetary problem N’is not alone in the part, there is also the course of the oil barrel which, since 2000, does not cease S’appreciating. In October 2004, the bar of the 54 dollars is crossed. In August 2005, another record of 70,85 dollars. At the time of the war of Lebanon in August 2006, the course passed very close to the 80 dollars the barrel. And at the beginning of November 2007, it registers a new record of 98,62 dollars, approaching its absolute record reached in April 1980 to 101,70 dollars, in prices adjusted with L’inflation, one year after the Iranian revolution and with the whole beginning of the war between Iran and Iraq. This new situation calls two remarks. Initially, L’essential of the macroeconomic looping of L’American economy can from now on only come " from the massive interventions of the Asian central banks ". In 2004, the Bank of China financed the deficits for an amount of 886 billion dollars [ European Central Bank, 2005 ]. L’American economy today absorbs’aujourd more than 70 % of the transfers D’saves international. How is it made whereas the dollar is taken in a spiral of depreciation if this " looping " is buckled? Force is to note that not, since L’enormous unbalances running American continues D’being reduced by an adjustment necessary to the fall of the dollar. Moreover, one has the right to put the question " Jusqu’on which level the depreciation of the dollar will go ". In the second place, why the increase in oil does not know to him also limits ? They are primarily the exporting countries of oil to the detriment of the primarily industrialized consumer countries which benefit from the rise of the prices. It is true qu’a depreciated dollar decreases the actual value of the oil barrel. If one compared the annual middle prices of the rate of exchange euro-dollar and the oil barrel of L’year 2002 and L’year 2007, respectively a barrel with 25 dollars for one euro with 0,94 dollar and a barrel with 75 dollars for one euro with 1,35 dollar, one would see that if in 2002, the oil barrel totaled 26,5 euros, in 2007, the barrel totaled 55,5 euros. That is to say more of the double, therefore a loss of earnings considerable for L’Europe, Japan or China. A true transfer of being able D’purchase S’is operated to the profit of the raw material producer countries, in particular the oil countries. As for the United States, which has the high hand on the oil layers and in particular Arabic, even with the " privilege of the dollar as a first world currency ", they has more and more evil to control the financial crisis and monetarist who affects them. How to include/understand this paradox ? 2. The system of Bretton Woods II. L’financial balance of terror The considerable deficit of the currant account of the balance of payments of the United States in constant increase and L’subsequent accumulation D’surpluses in the majority of the other areas of the world, constitute the L’one of the paradoxes most projecting at this beginning of third millenium. The greatest power, which more is the principal military super power, became the largest debtor of the world. This persistent deficit involved a clear deterioration of the American external position. Indeed, in an article the preceding " Arab world on the wire of the razor " in El Watan from the 29 to October 31, 2006, one showed how the clear external position American S’is deteriorated. Indeed, if the United States remains profit Nets of incomes D’investments of the world (30 billion dollars in 2004, after 46 billion in 2003) because of the output higher of the American credits held than L’foreign, a deterioration of their position nevertheless was awaited in the short run. L’stressing of L’difference between the American assets and their rough engagements tends to make decrease this creditor position of the United States. L’OECD estimated at L’time that this balance would be very slightly overdrawn in 2005, passing to - 0,2 % GDP in 2006. What means that, for the first time since close D’one century, " the United States would become payers Nets of income of factors ". Moreover the situation of American imbalance running is played primarily between the United States, the Asian countries of which China and Japan and to a certain extent " Arab oil countries ". This configuration originated in the escape D’many the private foreign direct investments and the placements in actions deprived in source D’Europe and their replacement by the Asian and Arab official authorities in American public titles. The interventions of exchange of the Asian central banks which supported the dollar, provided in an artificial way, an additional stimulant with the American imports, in particular of cheap Asian products. For the Arab countries, their situation well qu’it is more obscure in the field of the investments in the United States, N’is not far from that which attaches L’Asia to L’America. As for Europeans, out of this new process and on the defensive, " not knowing how to act against the rise continues L’euro and course of the barrel, they remain in L’expectancy D’an exit, confined in the monetary policy of the European central bank (ECB), guarantor of the monetary stability thus of the prices ". Question qu’one posed on imbalances of L’American economy : jusqu’with when ? The deficit running American S’is reabsorbed once in 1980, one second time in 1991, but since the deficit running is in constant growth with in addition a negative clear foreign debt. An explanation to L’appearance of these great imbalances and to important modifications qu’knew the international movements of capital was given by Mike Dooley, David Folkerts-Pram and Peter Garber of Deutsche Bank. According to this influential current in the economic literature, the current international system can be even assimilated to " new Bretton Wood". C’is thus qu’a unilateral decision of the super power put an end on August 15 1971au Bretton Woods, the dollar, like all the other currencies, ceased D’being convertible out of gold. Nevertheless a many European economists challenge Bretton Woods II and tax it D’plot, they advise a counter-cyclic policy of exchange of L’active euro to L’opposition to the monetary policy of the ECB. For these, it is necessary to raise the question simply : " Which was the reason first which inspired the European monetary authorities to create L’ euro, a process which lasted more than fifty years ? " According to L’former Minister for Finance of Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, L’Asia and the United States are condemned to support itself mutually. He describes this situation as being " a financial balance of terror ", since the Asian ones would be held to continue their acquisitions of American public titles in spite of an exchange rate risk growing for the dollar, or else they would start themselves a crash of which they would be the principal victims. Without counting qu’in the event of rupture D’balances, everyone would lose there, a financial crisis between the United States and L’Asia would involve a world crash. 3. Stake of oil in the macroeconomic configuration Aujourd’today oil S’does not stop D’increasing. Why ? One calls upon American stocks which decrease ! Or a very vigorous world request ! Refineries which pain to follow ! An unstable geopolitical environment which threatens the Close relation and the Middle East ! Turkey which seeks a right of continuation against the PKK to L’interior even of the Iraqi territory ! The threat of war in Iran ! Burden or fires in offshore oil rig wells! Etc All do these reasons hold the road to justify such rises ? And yet a number D’economic analyses showed that in fact still the American current account deficits are the true causes. The American current account deficits are not covered completely, and are not to it these last years qu’to a total value of 80%. According to Western data's, one needs at least 1,8 billion dollars daily to meet the financial needs for the United States. One can think that the United States monétise a part of the deficits (non covered by the foreign capital), C’be-with-statement while using of the board with ticket, which inevitably results in a depreciation of the dollar on the money markets. However to balance this depreciation, there is a mechanism which influences the American dollar favorably. C’is the "relation oil-dollar ". One explains usually the positive bond between the price of oil and the dollar by the behavior D’saves exporting countries of oil. A rise in the price of oil raises the receipts D’export of these countries, which are not entirely spent. L’saves thus made up is placed on the international markets of capital. However the exporting countries of oil have a distinct preference for the placements in dollars. Thus, " the rise in the price of oil led to an increase in world demand for the credits made out in dollars, which exceeds the degradation of the balance external of the United States related to the increase in the oil bill : the dollar S’appreciates ". But aujourd’today why this logic does not play any more ? Two explanations : The first, C’is the change which has occurred in the oil transactions. A many countries for various reasons chose to sell either in their national currencies, or in euro or simply by L’exchange of goods and services against oil (barter). And probably all the alternatives were used, according to of course the commercial or political interest. It is the case for example of "L’Iran, of Russia, Venezuela, etc which are not compelled to sell their oil in dollars ". As regards " barter ", one can suppose it for the tandem Iran-China or Sudan-China taking into account the strategic relations which bind these countries. Moreover the sale or barter is always done with the rates of exchange and the price of the barrel in the international markets. The value of sales N’not being changed, only the request of the American dollars is less on the money markets. Consequence : reduction in the mobilization of the dollars on the money markets by the consumer countries oil for the payment of the oil bills, which results in a reduction of the placements into dollars. One includes/understands thus why this mechanism does not play as in the years 1980. However the fact remains that the rise of the course of the barrel moderates the depreciation of the dollar nevertheless. Moreover the transfer of the capacity D’purchase to the producer countries booste L’world economy. Obviously " this mechanism requires L’adhesion of the oil-producing countries to invest the balance of payments surpluses in especially public American titles (goods of Treasure), because without this one, the mechanism would not work and Americans N’would have then any interest D’a expensive oil ". S’there exists a balance aujourd’today still bearable by an already negative and increasing clear foreign debt American, there remains that the constancy of the American current account deficits would bring early or late a insoutenability, therefore a serious situation for L’together of L’world economy and in particular for the Arab tandem State-Plain-world. To remember what S’passed in 1985, with the oil counterblow which followed : from 40 dollars in 1980 oil fell to less than 10 dollars the barrel in 1986. At that time, the Arab world was seriously penalized and doubly : the vertiginous fall of the course of the barrel combined ata rate of exchange of the dollar divided by two. To remember the meeting of the Ministers of Finance of the world in September 1985 to L’Hotel of Plaza in New York which carefully concerned’L landing dollar. The dollar being worth 4 Frs in January 1980, passed to more than 10 Frs in March 1985, that is to say with the new European currency, 1 euro for 0,5 dollar. In 1986, it passed to 6,6 Fr and in 1987 to 6 Fr, is nearly 1 euro for 1 dollar. This exchange was valid for all the other European currencies. That was the contents of the " agreements of Plaza ", if not D’to lead the dollar to drop without movement. The dollar being in rise, one needed on the contrary more " green tickets " on the money markets to deflate the American dollar. In D’different terms, L’American economy N’thus did not need D’oil surpluses (recycling of the petrodollars). Moreover current account deficits with L’time did not endanger the US currency, they were largely financed by the funds D’Europe, of Japan, of the Arab world and by a massive debt of the rest of the world. L’world economy was in Bern at that time. In 1985, the European Economic Community (the EEC) recorded its higher rate of unemployment. What explains why the American economic policy operated a turning with 180°, an economic revival became a need to leave the crisis. An oil at low prices not only necessary but was imposed by the economic situation, consequence: " an oil counterblow in 1986 ". What is not the case today with the advent of the euro, American current account deficits and finally rise to power of China in the world trade. 4. China makes part with the US strategy in the race with the layers China is an emergent power since qu’it found an internal stability and qu’it S’is directed as of the years 1980 towards a policy of revision of the Maoism and D’opening on L’foreign, dictated by a world context dominated by an ultra pure and hard liberalism. These economic doctrines characterized by " total laissez-faire ", prerogative of the United States, tend to becoming a rule in the international exchanges. The radical economic reforms which prevailed had an undeniable success : the growth of the GDP S’stages from 9 to 10% per annum, sometimes more, on a score D’years and which is not lunatic in 2007. Chinese economic success would remain unexplained if this economy D’opening N’were not supported by the potential D’a plethoric hand’œD uvre, quickly qualified and at very low price. C’is a little the Japanese miracle of the Sixties and Seventies which is transposed in L’Empire of the Medium. Thanks to L’economic advancement and with the appreciations of its companies, China attracts each year of the foreign investments (IDE) considerable. With its commercial surpluses, the Chinese monetary reserves reach more than 1000 billion dollars in the third quarter 2006. Reserves in dollars and American goods of Treasure with a futurology of 1500 billion for the Olympic Games in 2008. The Chinese currency is anchored to a basket of currencies whose dollar constitutes L’essential. China already fourth world economic power in front of France and the United Kingdom, S’conveys in the third place in front of L’Germany. In contrast, Western prosperity S’blows, the growth rate of L’Europe S’is weakened little by little, the United States whose growth rate has been hardly better, fluctuating between 3 and 4% for at least two decades, live above their means by financing their national expenditure by a budget deficit growing, not less than that of the external payments and in particular of the trade balance. A black spot however in the flourishing table of China, C’is the distressing shortage D’energy just like the United States. China is world consuming second after the United States. In particular, it endures a lack D’hydrocarbons for which it cannot compensate long-term’qu by renewable energies and an electric production D’nuclear origin. China is the second coal producer in the world, after the United States, but this resource covers only 50% of the needs. C’is why its hydrocarbon imports are in constant increase. In 2006, they account for 45% of the yearly consumption. Its imports are diversified, especially gulf arabopersic (Saudi Arabia and Iran), D’Central Asia (Soviet in the past), D’Indonesia, of Russia and D’Africa. In 2006, China became the second importer of African oil, behind the United States. The Chinese penetration with the Persian Gulf becomes increasingly precise. L’Iran, on which the United States makes plane a threat of war (the crisis of the nuclear file), became a privileged oil partner of China. In exchange of oil, China exports goods and technologies, in particular of L’armament (missiles, technologies, etc.) for L’Iran. The oil companies, all main roads, but behave in private companies, enter in direct competition with the " majors " American. They intervene even in the pre American square by negotiating with L’Saudi Arabia the creation of Saoudi oil stocks in China. But C’is in Africa that is felt with more D’acuity and success its presence. The imports grow starting from L’Africa at a rate of 25% in 2006 against 15% in 1986. A penetration forces some in Angola and more still in Nigeria. The Chinese make proof D’an extreme prudence and proceed to L’acquisition of hydrocarbons by commercial and financial means while seeking to avoid all confrontation with the United States and Europeans " the Chinese strategy consists with S’to address to the hydrocarbon D resources’a country while investing in the sectors of L’energy and the infrastructures with long-term contracts. Into everyday usage, this strategy results in a constant activity of national companies of civil engineering. The Chinese companies make come their own hand D’œuvre, sufficiently qualified, but D’a ridiculous cost compared to that of the Westerners. The compensation is frequently carried out by purchases of oil. The Western companies of civil engineering, whatever their nationalities, cannot support competition and are eliminated. Moreover the Chinese accept even D’to allocate free loans, even refundings by future oil exports. " The problem of Darfour presents a subject of extremely serious litigation between Chinese and Westerners, in particular the particularly implied Americans. The litigation is complex, because S’it raises questions of rights of L’Homme, religious confrontations and tendencies secessionists, in innermost depth, there is the problem of the control of the oil resource. Darfour and the South of Sudan, populated Christian populations, moderated animists or Moslem women, are in a state of secession with respect to Khartoum which cannot admit least inclination D’independence and even D’autonomy. North, the Center and L’East have a settlement approaching islamist fundamentalism, it results from this a civil war whose oil resource concentrated in Darfour is a principal stake. The Americans, after having been present at Darfour, as well by the proselytism of their associations evangelists as by their ONG, and even more by their oil companies, were constrained with L’evacuation. The risk and the losses became too strong, whereas L’Iraq mobilized a too important potential. In the vacuum thus creates, engulfed the Chinese, in support of Khartoum, exploiting the local oil richness of which they draw 6% from their annual imports. Their co-operation relates to the fields civil and military (supplies D’armament). The Chinese push back L’American embargo issued against Sudan, they S’oppose to the reinforcement or the replacement D’a force D’interposition. In agreement with the Russians, they threaten D’to impose their veto on a Council Resolution of safety far too constraining with L’regard of Khartoum. One includes/understands then why L’Iran with superb measuring apparatus the United States and Israel, and this at least for this reason : China became a strategic partner (first customer for L’Iran) as it L’is for Sudan and " a competitor baited for L’America as regards control of the oil-bearing areas ", Russia N’is not remains about it, it comes to supplement the table while giving its support for L’Iran (assistance of Russia in the construction of the nuclear thermal power station D’a power of 1000 MW in Bushehr). The commercial reasons oblige. By making a digression on L’Iran, one can doubt only the nuclear program in L’occurrence L’machines transformation of the uranium of Isfahan, the power station of Natanz and all the other Iranian sites which had already made L’object D’an ambitious program of the time of the Shah, N’could be done without L’support of the powers opposed to the American domination. Moreover one " true strategic partnership Moscow in Peijing within the framework D’a new regional coalition binds, L’Organisation of Co-operation of Shangaï, L’OCS ". This strategic partnership supplementing the commercial partnership, emphasizes impregnable place qu’occupies L’Iran in Central Asia, a true " Trojan horse " in the American plans. Moreover the doctrines D’damming up, " containment " used by the United States, are paradoxically turned over against these even which L’thought and put in œuvre. D’where L’importance of the geographical, economic position and soldier of L’Iran in the strategy of L’OCS in Central Asia. 5. L’innermost depth of the oil and gas strategy Chinese This being, it is now necessary to include/understand what the oil and gas strategy Chinese contains in innermost depth, C’be-with-statement induced consequences of these catches of market on a problem much more frightening for the United States : the dollar and its perenniality as a central reserve and money of account in the world. Fact even of the international role of the dollar, the international markets of capital and the exchange markets are strongly dependent on the American system. However with the current system of floating exchanges, and although the international statute of this currency N’is not yet called in question, its position S’exhausts more and more especially since the years 2000. The two levers, causes of this crumbling, are the launching of L’euro into 1999 which upset L’world monetary order and the rise to unexpected power of China. To try to include/understand the risks incurred by the American dollar, it should be specified that this N’is not only the tough will of China to penetrate the markets of the raw materials especially energy, and thus the layers, but especially to give one " will have positive " with particular relations qu’it weaves with its partners especially D’Africa and of the Close relation and the Middle East. Such as for example L’granting of considerable facilities in the States, L’" obliteration of the debt " – China up to now erased the debt of 31 countries – or " D’to grant preferential loans, even refundings by future oil exports ", etc And finally " the mode set up to finance the purchases of oil by compensations, C’be-with-statement of the achievements D’infrastructures, exports of goods and services at low prices, investments much more favorable as those of the Westerners, long-term contracts relating as well to civil that on the soldier ". The Chinese have a preference for barter because this one avoids L use’of the dollar to them which, by its fluctuations with the fall or the rise, parasitizes the exchanges. And these fluctuations are ordered by the law of L’offers and the request for this currency on the international markets. The more the part of the American deficits non covered by the foreign capital increases, the more the US dollar weakens. The dollar being in on quantity on the money markets following the monetization of the deficits, it depreciates. D’different leaves, plus the price of oil increases, the request for American dollars is large. Prices of the other raw materials (gold, corn, milk, steel, etc.) follow this spiral hawser. If China chooses massively barter with its Eastern trade partners African or close and average at the cost of course of the course of the oil barrel, a part of the American money supply in the financial markets as one L’already explained remains without purchasers, consequently the total of the surpluses of the exporting countries of oil made out in dollars which must go back to the United States is some reduced. For that it is necessary to still add oil exports of Russia, of Venezuela, of Norway, in China, with L’Europe, L’South America, these countries sell also partly is in currency other than the dollar is by barter. In the same way for L’Iran and Sudan which are in conflict with the United States. All these countries for reasons policy or economic are not compelled to sell their oil in dollars. Consequence : the United States is private to some extent D’a good part of the right of " seigneuriage " on the world, privilege that only jusqu now’the dollar has. It is included/understood why this strategy is much more frightening than the creation of L’euro which him also S’sets up in rampart for L’Europe monetary against the speculative attacks of the dollar. This strategy is likely to call into question the perenniality of the dollar as a single currency of invoicing of oil. In the final analysis, if L’one takes into account the injuries caused by the fluctuations D’an unstable dollar, the sale of the raw materials during other currencies or in barter is considered much healthier than by its intermediation. C’is what arises a little the policy " gain-gaining in the strategic partnership " preached by China. The exchanges must be based according to international standards' and on the principle of the equality and the mutual benefit. From there, one includes/understands L’impact of the Chinese strategy in the reversal of the dollar. The problem aujourd’today in the new economic situation which takes shape calls two fundamental questions : " Which direction to give to this fast fall of the US exchange value of the dollar ? And with this rise course of oil continues " 6. Which strategy for the United States ? A. From the economic point of view Inevitably these two fast and continuous movements of the oil and exchange value of the dollar have a significance today specifies’D as much as the situation of the aujourd’United States leaves perplexed. Abyssal twin deficits, a dollar in fall, an oil with courses increasingly higher and America put at evil from the double economic and geostrategic point of view. Thus which vision to allot to this equation touching at the same time L’economic and the strategic one? Is L’future so dark for the United States ? To tell the truth the answers speak D’themselves in this dynamics generated by L’uncertainty which weighs on the economic situation of the United States. For the first time since close D’one century, the United States became payers Nets of income of factors, which wants to say that in spite of silence on the foreign debt, the American deficits are already insupportable and require an urgent solution. The " system of supplier credit " or " I especially credit you so that you’m buy ", with China, S’blows, it is as much particularly unstable’D qu’there are " frictions on the yuan ". The Americans show the Chinese government to maintain artificially its currency very low in order to get a competitive advantage on the world markets and to support national exports. In the same way, since the recent very fast rise of L’euro in October 2007, the Ministers for Finance of the zone euro exhort them also China to revalue the yuan. All are unanimous with saying that the yuan does not reflect the fundamental economic ones and call China with more flexibility on its policy of exchange. Admittedly the economic boom of China should have made climb the yuan on the foreign exchange market, but the brittleness of the Chinese financial system and fear qu’a strong revaluation N’handicaps its exports and thus its growth, pushes the Chinese authorities to follow with prudence the policy of exchange. If the yuan S’is appreciated these two last years, this rise however remains very measured. This situation is obviously prejudicial for L’American economy, a trade deficit record is reached in 2006, 764 billion dollars including 232 billion dollars, that is to say more of the quarter with China. With Japan, a deficit record to 88 billion dollars, a figure which should also reactivate fears of undervaluation of the yen. With respect to the European Union on the other hand, the Americans succeeded in reducing their deficit to 116,6 billion dollars. And neither the negotiations nor compromises N’could prevail to level the monetary frictions with the Asian giant. Actually even with a revaluation more adapted of the yuan to fundamental, it N’is not known as that China N’does not have the last word as regards commercial competition. At least for three factors. Any D’access L’favours of China is located in the price of the labour force, 1 per 32 is 3,125 % only of the American labour force. According to Western data, the average hourly wage in China east of 0,5 dollar, against 4 dollars in Mexico and 16 dollars in the United States. L’different factor is the weakness of the saving of the households in the USA, this is seen and known and explains D’a certain way the American real crisis. Finally L’different factor quite as important, C’is the budget defense, one suspects well that 737 bases overseas require an amazing budget. Without counting the wars carried out since 2001. Thus one cannot all put on the account of monetary handling by China. There is a great part of realism in any conflict which opposes the powers, and then nothing N’prohibited with L’America to follow to its own way its own monetary policy. This being, one enters of appartment the strategy of the United States vis-a-vis to the challenges in progress. Qu’do we observe since January 2006 ? The dollar does not cease being depreciated and the course of the raw materials D’to increase. And if the United States chose a weak dollar ? Which consequences can it involve an increasingly weak dollar and an oil course always in rise ? It is clear that the oil imports will become for China more expensive, in the same way a very low rate of exchange of the dollar will penalize its exports. For two reasons at least. A very low rate of the dollar reduces the American imports, and consequently the Chinese commercial surpluses. The second reason, China will be obliged to sell a part of these reserves of exchange in dollars not to lose to show a large loss on transactions on foreign currency. What accentuates even more the fall of the dollar. As the reserves of exchange are assembled already to 1443 billion dollars in 2007, the Chinese losses, in the final analysis, would be ridiculous compared to the advantages that their solid economic growth based on L export will have gotten’to them. The same has applied to all the other countries D’Asia and from the oil Arab countries having cumulated reserves of exchange for at least five years. Obviously, this world financial rebalancing will not be done in a few months, but will take a few years during which the euro can go to 2 dollars and more, and all still depends on the course of the oil barrel which can also go up to him to 150 dollars even more. C’is precisely the " couple rate of exchange of the dollar/cours of the oil " which can indirectly contribute to reduce the balance of payments deficit current American. But American strategy N’is not acquired, it is still necessary to count on the new dynamics engaged by China. With " L ’initiative of Chiang-Maï ", a new framework which combines at the same time a reinforcement of the capacities of monitoring and an increase D capacity of financing of L’Asia, plus an undeniable opening in Africa, South America, with the Close relation and the Middle East on all that touches oil, China becomes a competitor of weight to the American economic power. With title D’example, China practises a policy of skirting to the dollar, currency of invoicing of the raw materials, through bilateral agreements. Moreover " L ’initiative of Chiang-Maï " S’sets up in competitor of weight as "a financial bottom " able D’to influence the reports/ratios of force with the IMF (and the USA, its principal shareholder). Without counting qu’a weakening of L’world economy can occur and complicate even more the international relations. This qu’one can say on this news give, C’is that the world is with the day before D’a " new paradigm ". L’world economy makes its moult, the giants D’yesterday are not the giants of tomorrow. The new paradigm is that of L’opening to new growing forces, L’ultra liberalism with universalization catches on the wrong foot the Western powers. More and more, in institutions even qu’they thought and creates to know L’OMC, the IMF… jusqu’with the creation of L’euro, L’Occident S’is even enferré fixed with economic realities qu’it N’did not envisage. And S’it is difficult to predict what will occur, it is however certain that this news give will weigh in the medium term on the North-South relationships and East-West. B On the plan geostrategic Within sight of the stakes in progress, the United States starts to join again with pragmatism thus to understand that this situation is perilous in the long term. A change D’attitude intervened in the file of the Close relation and the Middle East. Already one can think of a deal concluded between the United States and L’Iran, considering a notable fall of violence in Iraq. The United States while not seeking not to lose the face is in the train D’applying in fact the recommendations of the Hamilton-Baker report of January 2007. Although shy person, a will to decrease the troops D’Iraq in 2008 exists. In Afghanistan, one also attends a fall of violence in spite of the offensive resumption of’L of the Talibans since 2006. More especially as Europeans balk D’to send troops in spite of the American pressing request. Already the countries of L’Organization of co-operation of Shanghai (OCS) – L’Iran, Pakistan and L ’India have the statute D’observant –, considering the difficulties met by the 40 000 men of L’NATO (ISAF) and the 7000 navy American, projects to take the changing. Considering the efforts required and the cost in time, the forces of L ’NATO are likely to be blown in Central Asia, a reverse in Afghanistan is not to draw aside. On the strategic level, if that should be confirmed, a terrible blow will be carried to the credibility of the forces otaniennes. Without counting the other hanging problems like the conflicts in Somalia and in Darfour. It is clear that L’America must for its financial and monetary credibility give up crenels which endanger its economy. The reversal of its foreign politics proves a need today. If there are inclinations of war with L’Iran, to use even nuclear tactical weapons, America must raise this question: " that a conflict of this kind will bring? " " Of the official or clandestine nuclear programs will be born with abundance. As for the exit of the conflict, it will be only what was already in the past : the first world power will give up L’Iraq and the Middle East like that was to Vietnam in 1975. "It is included/understood why aujourd’today L’interest undergoes by Centcom for L’Africa… and the end not-to receive by the majority of the African countries. One also includes/understands why the new vision of the Palestinian problem by the United States. The geostrategic and geoeconomic configuration being in moult, Israel will not be able in the long term any more to constitute a serious support in the upheavals in progress for the super power. In Asia, the North Korea is dismantling its nuclear installations, the co-operation replaced L’inveighs, which is of good omen for dynamics in progress. All these give indicate qu to us’a major configuration is in gestation, to L’instar even of gives economic, and the United States plays a central part there. All depends on the procedure retained by L’America and on " L’intelligence strategic to manage its failures ", because it S’acts well D’failures for the super power vis-a-vis with the sudden starts D’a world of transition. If America still has master cards, it is necessary for that that it is well inspired... by reality, the reality which prevails in this new turning of the world.
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