HIDDEN SIDES OF THE WAR IN LEBANON
How the Arabs in the event of major conflict in the Middle East can bring peace and… create a Palestinian State?
Sections
1. INTRODUCTION
2. RETROSPECTIVE. OFFENSIVE AMERICAINE COUNTERS L’IRAQ
3. L E PARADOX DOLLAR/BARIL OF OIL
4. P OSITION OF The ARABS. P ARTENARIAT CHINE-ÉTATS-UNIS
5. A QUIET WAR
6. L’AMERICA IN WAR AGAINST The WORLD
7. SCENARIOS OF WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST
8. HOW ARRETER THE WAR? ACTION DECISIVE OF The ARAB COUNTRIES
1. INTRODUCTION
How to include/understand the American strategy in its escape ahead against the Arab world? And what can make the Arab countries ? Behind the famous American speech on the GMO (the Great East Means) and this will to redraw the geopolitics of the Close relation and the Middle East, Washington truly seeks it to found a democracy in these countries or, N’makes of them it qu’an artifice, a powder with the eyes to carry out the secret intentions of its strategy. Rise to power of Russia in L’scene of world affairs and especially of China, become fourth world power economic, and the " new great oil play " which oppose them, combined with the news gives monetary L’Europe, are not foreign with this aggressiveness States-Uniennes. If not how to include/understand the war in Lebanon and the policy of two weights two measurements of L’America ? L’removal of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah justifies it this war devastator 34 days, with more than 1100 dead Lebanese side, and more than 150 dead Israeli side. A good part of the country of the Cedar was devastated by the bombardments of L’armed Israeli, bridges, roads, houses, power stations, hospital…
Since the world is world, nothing N’is left fortuitous in the warlike strategies. No war N’is declared with light if it N’is underlain by a convergence D’interests political or economic. No nation makes the war for the war, this Israeli aggressiveness aujourd’today does not result D’a paranoiac theory but well from secret plans aiming of the political and economic objectives precise. For more than fifty years, the Arab world has been used like joker in the strategy of the first world power: to reinflate its power when it declines.
The economic power of the United States, which stagnated since the years 1970, declines since the end of the Cold war. Their share in the world trade and the production has appreciably decreased for this period, their economic force compared with those of L’European Union and of the be-Asian group (Japan, China and other countries of the South-East Asia) is also in retreat. The persistent recourse of the Americans to the force must be interpreted like a reaction to their economic decline and not only with the geopolitical situation Cold post-War. Moreover this recourse targets primarily the weak link of planet, the Close East where the largest oil tanks are, and especially L’black gold which comes there " develops the dollar ". Consequently one includes/understands L’importance of L’State D’Israel in the American strategy, another joker quite as important if not more, because C’is of him which come the oil seisms. These seisms, they create them by the war. On the level total, world, Hezbollah N’is counted, and in spite of its success aujourd’today, qu’in small link D’a chain D’different let us net larger, more important compared to L’impact which can have the strategic objectives, total, final American S’they were carried out. From there, one includes/understands the reserves of the Arab countries to this great " play ", their awakening become a reality, them
Americans have more and more difficulties of thwarting them, them to align with their " world politics ", D’where this animosity and the new speech on the " Great East Means ". Moreover than would represent Syria or with L’extreme, L’Iran, with which one reproaches the secret desire for obtaining L’arms nuclear whereas the North Korea affirms to control the process of them? With L’obviousness, L’Iran represents a quasi null power with respect to the American super power. Only being able to make part with L’American nuclear arsenal is Russia. However the United States is embourbés in Iraq. The forces of the coalition in Iraq S’reduce day in day, the Japanese troops leave L’Iraq, at the end of L’year C’is with the turn of the Italian troops. And L’America continues in its unilateralism to defy the world, to foment D’different conflicts. L’Europe, refractory with L’hégémon American, especially with the found monetary power, L’" euro " (1) European currency impetus in January 1999, fissures since the political changes occurred in Germany. The group represented by France-Germany-Russia, seeking to make failure with the American policy, made long fire. France, making from now on riding only, is on the tightrope… vis-a-vis with the geopolitics of L’hour, D’where its excuses with the Americans in the draft Resolution of cease to it fire between Israel and Lebanon in juillet/août 2006.
Why with each geopolitical quivering, with each technical breakdown dusse to be in Nigeria, in Alaska or elsewhere… the courses of the oil S barrel’fly away ? Is this progression of the oil courses, without back return, since the mini oil counterblow of 1998, continuous? Is there a limit with this evolution hawser of the oil courses ? Is this " oil shortage " a myth or a reality ? C’is with all these questions which this study tries D’to bring a logical… answer.
2. RETROSPECTIVE. OFFENSIVE AMERICAINE COUNTERS L’IRAQ
After Washington had presented a particularly hard draft Resolution on L’Iraq, president George W. Bush launched an ultimatum on October 24 2002 to the members of the Security Council. In spite of L’opposition of the public opinions in the world and the resistance of the France-Germany-Russia group against the project of war in Iraq, March 20, 2003, without L’downstream of the United Nations, the United States launches their offensive against L’Iraq. The Iraqi mode S’broke down three weeks later, putting an end to the mode of Saddam Hussein who sought to weaken her monetary power, by making out on September 28, 2000 its oil in euro and requiring the conversion of the ten billion dollars of reserves (oil against food) into euros.
May 2, 2003, the American president announced the end of the " phase of the major hostilities ". In a climate D’euphoria, the néo-conservatives suggested D’using the same technique of " inversion of mode " against L’Iran, Syria, even L’Saudi Arabia… L’American offensive in Iraq in March 2003, obeyed two vital objectives : D’access the safeguarding of the oil reservoirs in the American bosom, then the monetary wording of the oil courses must remain in dollar. These two objectives were used D’warning masked for the Arab, majority modes in L’oil organization L’OPEC, on gives monetary oil.
Another conflict opposes the United States to the North Korea, actually this conflict relates to any L’Asia, and L’future of the United States with L’Asia. December 27, 2002, Pyongyang announced the unilateral rupture of L’agreement signed with the en1994 United States and stated S’to prepare with congédier the inspectors of L’Agence international L’atomic energy (AEIA). If L’America S’is shown intractable with L’Iraq, and is posted an attitude more measured vis-a-vis in Korea, affirming that the conflict would be solved by the diplomacy. C’is quite simply that the stakes in L’one or L’different area of the world are different. The first places at Cœur D’an explosive area, the large one of the energy tanks of the world being in this area. The second, is in an area at the risk for L’America. Moreover L’American economy even if it joins again with the growth in 2003, 2004, 2005, is especially made on bottom D’a debt even more marked.
In the field of the strategy, L’Iran and Syria offer a dimension political and economic capital, likely to reverse the course of the world events. This dimension obviously is not very perceptible… if L’Iran and Syria N’had not existed, L’America would have created them or replaced by D’different country of the area.
3. L E PARADOX DOLLAR/BARIL OF OIL
L’euro passed by again for the second time in mid-November 2003, its higher historical level vis-a-vis with the green ticket, 1,1956 dollar, it increased by 40%... since its low levels, to 0,84 dollar in 2000. The oil barrel exceeds the 33 dollars in November 2003.
In February 2004, L’euro butts against 1,30 dollar. In June 2004, the EDF proceeds for the first time to a monetary tightening D’a quarter of point, from 1 to 1,25%. C’is the beginning of the second financial cycle… since L’advent of L’euro. This monetary tightening will continue and, after ten seven successive rises, the rate of the EDF funds is carried from 1% to 5,25% on June 29, 2006.
In October 2004, L’euro is worth always 1,30 dollar, oil crosses the bar of 54 dollars.
In April 2005, the course of L’euro starts to be depreciated. April 2005, it is to 1,29379 dollar. May 2005, to 1,2694 dollar. In June 2005, it is to 1,21649 dollar, the barrel of oil touches a record 60,47 dollars
In August 2005, the oil barrel reaches a new record 70,85 dollars, L’euro is worth 1,20 dollar.
October 23, 2005, the barrel is with 64 dollars, L’euro is worth 1,195 dollar. The course bull of the dollar will be stabilized. In March 2006, L’euro always ranges between 1,19 and 1,20 dollar.
What does one note ? The more the price of the oil barrel increases, the more the dollar S’appreciates. With L’increase in oil and its derivatives, consumer countries (Europe, Japan, China, etc.) are in L’obligation to mobilize considerable liquidities of green tickets to honour their energy invoices. Result : reduction in the American money supply in the international markets and increase in the reserves in dollars of the exporting countries of oil of which Arab countries.
It is good for this gives, to quote a drawn passage D’an Algerian economic weekly magazine :
- Freedom economy of July 26 to the 1 er August 2000 :
Mr. Lorenzo Sanchez (ambassador, chief of the delegation of the European Commission in Algeria)
" European Algeria-Union : an agreement D’association in 2001 ".
Maintenance. Freedom economy : " will the currency D’exchanges in the Mediterranean basin be L’euro ? Will Mediterranean third countries have to gain by adopting the single currency of L’Europe ? "
Mr. Lorenzo Sanchez : " the European currency has to become a solid currency. Its management by the European central Bank will be made D’an orthodoxe way. It will be a stable currency, D’where L’interest of its adoption by the Mediterranean countries. This stability will offer safety vis-a-vis to the fluctuations of the other currencies and will give confidence to the economic operators. It could also be used as currency of reserve in the central Banks of Mediterranean third countries. I think that the European currency will have in the future a considerable place in the international transactions. "
Freedom-economy : " Which is L’stake for the European countries ? "
Mr. Lorenzo Sanchez : " C’is to compete with the dollar and to better control L’inflation. We have in this moment in Europe of the problems D’inflation because of the devaluation of the dollar and owing to the fact that our oil imports are made out in this currency. With L’future, we hope for qu’a part of these raw material imports energy are invoiced in euro. What would give much more stability to our economies. Moreover, if L’euro is used as currency of reserve in the central Banks of third countries Mediterranean and qu’it is used in the international commercial transactions, we will have the same privilege as the aujourd United States’today, which, thanks to the dollar, faces the enormous trade deficits and with L’debt – C’is precisely the country more involved in debt in – the world by this capacity qu’have the United States to return each year their trade deficit to the rest of the world. "
This testimony D’a high-ranking person of L’European Union is eloquent on L’importance of the stakes monetary and oil in the world.
However how is it done that if from April 2005 to March 2006, the dollar S’is more or less appreciated, as from April 2006, it again depreciates ? Essential question in the final analysis to include/understand’qu, the United States is not alone in the monetary and oil play, the American strategy in progress meets D’different strategies, in particular Chinese, Russian, and Arab.
As of April 2006, the dollar drops, L’euro is to 1,22712 dollar. On this same date, the oil barrel reaches a new record with 70,88 dollars in New York.
In May 2006, the dollar is still depreciated, L’euro is to 1,27696 dollar.
In August 2006, L’euro ranges between 1,28 and 1,29 dollar, the price of the oil barrel reaches D’different peaks with the war in Lebanon, it exceeds the 78 dollars.
4. P OSITION OF The ARABS. P ARTENARIAT CHINE-ÉTATS-UNIS
To include/understand, let us point out qu’between 1979 and 1985 with the second oil crisis following the Iran-Iraq war, the oil barrel reached a peak of 40 dollars. The dollar (3), from 4,03820 Frs in January 1980, passed to more than 10,11200 Frs in March 1985, that is to say twice and half the value of the frank. It practically goes from there in the same way with all the European currencies except that of Japan, which was anchored to the dollar. At this period, the rates D’interest American court had reached tops of more than 19% between 1981 and 1982. The deflationary policy followed by Reagan carried a serious damage to the economies of the countries of the Third World (a massive debt). It contributed also at least indirectly to L’implosion of the countries of L’Is and L’the USSR in 1989-1990. L’world economy was in Bern.
One needed the agreements of Plaza in September 1985, in New York, to bring the large central Banks of G5 (the United States, Japan, Germany, France and Great Britain to turn over the monetary tendency. To tell the truth, the oil counterblow was already had a presentiment of by the great powers, which ordered D’to anticipate and prepare L’landing carefully dollar in 1985. Two years after, in September 1987, the agreements of the Louvre (G7 with L’Italy and Canada) were to stop the fall of the dollar and to stabilize it around D’an objective of exchange and tolerable limits of fluctuations.
However, aujourd’today, contrary to the years 1980-1985, the mobilization of strong liquidities of green tickets for the oil imports which was normally to finance a part of the deficit of the American current balance and to decrease the pressure on the dollar, S’is made smell very little. Much more, C’is L’opposite which occurs. The analyses D’expert European N’give some that little D’indications. A study published by L’Institute of International Finances (IIF) (4) reports that six monarchies of the Gulf should reach a surplus of the balance of the currant accounts equivalent to 30% of their GDP in 2006 and 2007 and invest 450 billion dollars to L’foreign.
" the statistics on the stock-accounts remain opaque, but while basing oneself on the surpluses of the currant accounts, one discovers that the countries of the CCG accumulated into 2005 of the foreign titles for 167 billion dollars, carrying the total for the six last years with more than 400 billion dollars", the president of the IIF, Charles Dallara underlined.
" On the same basis we expect that flows of investment coming from the CCG will rise to at least 450 billion dollars in 2006 and 2007 ", it added. The study of the IIF, which counts on an always high price of the crude oil barrel (with 70 dollars in 2007), calculated that exports of the CCG will reach the next year 544 billion dollars " either more than combined total exports of Brazil, of India, Poland and Turkey ". Another indication brought by the IIF, the CCG more turned its attention towards the countries of Asia, in particular towards China, become the second large-scale consumer of oil of the world and the market for the petrochemical products of the Gulf having the strongest growth. On the other hand, note the study of the IIF, " the investors of the CCG seem to be increasingly reticent to invest directly in the United States since the attacks of September 11 2001". This for the Arabs.
As regards China, a short historical background. In June 1989, at the following day of the events of the place of Tiananmen, Deng Xiaoping decided that China was not ideologically " to hold up the flag or to lead the wave ", but " to hide its intentions and to accumulate a national force (CAT guang yang today) " This strategy S’is never contradicted since the vacuum ideological which succeeded Mao and filled by the new doctrines of the Communist Party – " the practice is the only criterion of truth. This proposal S’granted well to the two preferred proverbs of Deng Xiaoping : " qu’imports qu’a cat is gray or white provided qu’it catches the mice " and " Crosses the river by touching the stone ". In this logic, one understands that the economic development is the factor which determines all. " It is the ultimate truth ". Image which carries L’adhesion of the Chinese people, because it is an attic window of exit of poverty.
The low profile in the negotiations with Washington on L’access to the American market or at the time of its abstention to the votes from the Security Council from L’UNO on L’Iraq in 1991, was worth in China D’to garner major benefit : lifting of the sanctions after 1992, L’granting by the United States of the clause of the most favoured nation and finally a phenomenal increase in the direct foreign investments (IDE). What S’is translated by a rise into arrow of exports and IDE, which supported the dynamics of the economic growth L’raising aujourd’today with the row of fourth world economic power in front of Chinese Great Britain and – France GDP : 2 225 billion dollars in 2005 according to the national Office of statistics (BNS), GDP France and Great Britain : respectively fifth and fourth with a GDP of 2 000 billion and 2 140 billion in 2004, according to the World Bank.
Aujourd’today, with the fall of the dollar since 2003 and its consequences : escape of foreign capital
American places towards the European and Asian places, L’Chinese economy occupies a central place in L’American economy. Indeed, in spite of the dissensions on the underestimated Chinese – currency –, the United States is entirely dependent on the Asian capital. With an amount of the reserves (5) of exchange which reached 818,9 billion dollars in 2005, in rise of 208,9 billion out of one year, and second reserves of exchange in the world behind Japan, China became the Banker of the United States. China finances the Americans so that they buy products " made in Clouded " Conséquences : 1. A vertiginous economic growth of almost 10% for China with considerable cumulated commercial surpluses (even with L’Europe). 2. For the United States, an average growth rate since 2003 of 3,5%, but on a bottom D’an increasing debt. 3. The partnership China-State-Plain S’is locked up in a vicious circle and the efforts of the United States to release itself are condemned to contract itself more on the difficulties generated by the economic and monetary situation international.
It is wise to recall that the last figures of the deficit of the American currant account of the United States into 2005 indicate qu’he reached 804,9 billion dollars, that is to say 6,4% of the GDP, then qu’in 2004, he was 668,1 billion dollars or 5,7% the GDP. A however positive news. The American budget deficit of 413 billion dollars in 2004 was brought back to 317 billion dollars in 2005, a prowess for the federal government. For L’fiscal year 2006, according to forecasts', it should go down to 260 billion dollars.
5. A QUIET WAR
Qu’is question qu’one S’is posed : how is it done that if from April 2005 to March 2006, the dollar S’is more or less appreciated, as from April 2006, it again depreciates ? All the puzzle is there, in this monetary mystery. Even aujourd’today, with the war of Lebanon, the course of the barrel passed very close to the 80 dollars, and yet the dollar remained atits former rate, C’be-with-statement one euro between 1,28 and 1,29 dollar.
If we include/understand why the Arabs diversify their wallets D’active in the world, a distrust towards the United States, a fear which their assets are cold, for China, it goes from there differently. Its principal concern is to remain competitive on the international markets. A hand-D’œuvre underpaid, industrial (know-how proven, dynamic, etc.) is a condition necessary but nonsufficient. It remains with performer the qualité/prix plan, and this plan is offered to him only by one underestimated currency. The yuan although commercial but not-convertible – about like the Algerian dinar –, an undervaluation learnedly established by the Chinese monetary authorities would give him a parity of combat not only with respect to the dollar, but also of the other great currencies, L’euro, the yen, sterling delivers it,… With the dollar, the undervaluation is already acquired to him since the yuan (or the renminbi, " currency of the people ", official name of the yuan) is indexed with the dollar since 1994.
July 21, 2005, in front of the pressing calls of the United States and of L’European Union, China ended up revaluing its currency of 2,5%, the rate D’anchoring passed from 8,2765 to 8,11 yuans for 1 dollar and a fluctuation of 0,3% around this rate. Aujourd’today, the official course pivot of August 2006 is of 7,9772 yuans. To tell the truth, all these small steps are ridiculous vis-a-vis with the commercial surpluses which China cumulates. Greenspan, then Bernanke, the new governor of the American federal reserve exhorts China to cut the umbilical cord with the dollar. Cause lost, for China, it S’acts D there’a monetary problem of sovereignty.
To answer partly the put question, if China diversified its formidable reserves of exchanges, to L’instar of the Arab countries, not for the same reasons, but for that to maintain the parity of combat of its currency, C’be-with-statement to maintain the dollar always feeble vis-a-vis with the great currencies, it is clear qu’it would always maintain its competitiveness commercial. The process is simple : " More the course of the barrel is raised, plus the green tickets are required on the money markets for the payment of the oil imports. The reduction in the American dollar on the markets involves its appreciation de facto. China as D’different Asian countries which may find it beneficial with S’to oppose to L’appreciation of the dollar for the caused reasons, can convert on the markets a share of their reserves into dollars into euros, this injection of dollars on the markets would thus compensate for a part of this reduction. This movement can make task D’oils and involve D’different country to be disengaged from the dollar. The central Bank of Sweden (Riksbank) announced in April 2006 to have proceeded to a diversification of its reserves, the benefit of L’euro and the detriment of the green bill. The share of the euro in its trunks passes to 50% against 37% previously and that of the dollar moves back to 20% against 37%.
Another echo. At this same period, the Russian minister of L’economy Alexeï Koudrine criticized L’instability of the American currency, at the time D’a press conference in Washington before L’opening D’a meeting of G7. What poses beyond the Chinese strategy, the question of the diversification of the reserves of the central banks, this one is once again on the front of the scene.
For Russia, L’idea D’a participation in the pricing of the oil rates, which passes by a fuller objective, that of the convertibility of the rouble (6), shows qu’it N’is not insensitive with the upheavals in progress. Much more, within the framework to prepare the rouble with becoming a currency for the international payments, president Vladimir Putin proposed, in his annual message with L’federal Assemblée of April 25, 2006, D’to increase on the own territory the sale out of purse of the principal products D’export Russian (oil, gas and others) regulated in roubles. Thus the Russian currency will start to be required and dimensioned out of purse with L’foreign as C’is aujourd’today the case of L’euro and the dollar. D’different leaves Russia, first supplier of L’Europe, may find it very beneficial to invoice the payment of oil and gas in euros. Indeed, such a step of the Russian part not only will be made for the benefit of L’Europe but favours also L’economy Russian. To invoice oil and gas in euros is equivalent putting even more pressure on the dollar. Consequences : 1. The dollar is depreciated vis-a-vis with L’euro on the markets, 2. The United States will use any pretext to increase the oil courses, so D’to increase the request for green tickets. 3. This depreciation more than is compensated by the rise of the courses which involves an increase in the Russian oil receipts.
L’Iran, in conflict with the United States on the nuclear question and the threats of sanctions which weigh on it, may find it very beneficial to invoice in a currency other than the dollar. It can support the countries combined with its cause, like China. It also emitted the wish into 2006 to create an oil purse.
The Arab countries are not remains about it, they are in the part. An article of Xavier Harel of the Platform of May 05, 2006 pays : "the countries rich in oil of the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia knew in 2005, for the fifth consecutive year, an average growth (6,5 %) definitely higher than the world expansion. The oil incomes of the area passed from 185 billion dollars in 2002, to 460 billion in 2005, according to the IMF. These countries strongly reduced their debt thanks to the oil basket. Since 2002, they saved " two thirds of the rise of their oil incomes ", according to an International Monetary report/ratio of the International Monetary Funds on the Middle East and the Central Asia. The two preceding oil crises (1973 and 1979) on the contrary had caused a flight of the public expenditure. The oil counterblow of the middle of the Eighties had then plunged many countries of the area in the spiral of the "debt. "
If the Arab countries refunded by anticipation, that would largely decrease the burden of the service and the main thing of the debt. D’different leaves, that represents not only one unquestionable advantage for the future generations leaving them a slate reduced, but also, in the event of return of crank, to have pinion on the financial markets (credibility of little involved in debt countries). But on another level, this one strategic – the Arab countries from now on evolve/move in a context of larval conflict with the United States since September 11, 2005 –, the oil receipts S’carry out in dollars, the dollar being the currency of oil invoicing. Since the Arab countries refund the countries : European union, Japan, or Russia, in dollars, or that these countries require euros, yens or roubles, it remains that in a direction or L’different, the dollars finish in the money markets. Result : still a depreciation of the American dollar by a programmed degearing. One includes/understands qu then’a saving of 2/3 of the rise and an anticipated collective refunding enters a common Arab strategy, L’Algérie is following the movement. For L’Europe, the depreciation of the American dollar gives a margin of manœuvre to the European central Bank : not to choke the European economic growth. Four rises only of one quarter of the rate of refinancing, from December 2005 to August 2006, 3% were operated by the ECB whereas the EDF, from June 2004 to June 2006, carried out ten seven rises to bring its rate to 5,25%.
All these data show us qu’a monetary quiet war is carrying out itself between the large and average powers. Without drum nor brass band, these shootings crossed on the dollar make the despair of L’American administration. And which upset the dollar ? L’" euro " ! With the present stage, it N’is qu’a first competitor, and when D’different competitor potential come up !!!
6. L’AMERICA IN WAR AGAINST The WORLD
The United States chose the way of L’unilateralism, and aujourd’today, one includes/understands inevitably, behind the American warlike parade, qu’it exists a major doubt in its dominating power, rather virtual that real. What can the weapons and even nuclear against an economic and monetary dynamics with L’planetary scale. The chiefs of the servants of the system americanist – the néo-conservatives – in fact reveal their impotence to perennialize L’American Dream, there is a truth opposite, and the truth can be painful.
A recent article D’Henry Kissinger reproduces by the Argentinian press, said that " the multilateralism was finished and that the world had to accept the conditions of the absolute superiority of the armed forces northern American leading so that L’international order was finished ". Which distributed can one oppose to this assertion : aggressiveness or despair ? The strategist of the Seventies must know that the preventive war (supposedly doctrines-Bush) was to start by destroying the European currency which upset L’order political, economic and monetary world. Moreover can this preventive war stop 50 years D’European history which allowed the installation of this rival currency on the world scene, suction sharing the privileges of the American dollar ? D’different surely aspire to it, a question simply time. Is it necessary to make the war in China parce qu’it goes up in power thanks precisely to the dollar ? Or in Russia whose rise of the course of oil gives him a new advisability to weigh on L’scene of world affairs ? And the essential question, object of this study : " That a preventive attack against Syria would give ? And L Iran’, a conventional or nuclear attack counters " ? To tell the truth, if the first power does not push back L’idea D’a preventive attack nuclear D’a non-nuclear State, L’Iran, C’is qu’there is problem. The crisis about which one speaks N’is not the Iranian crisis but the American crisis. And there we enter the sharp one of the subject of " why the preventive war ?".
With the rise course of oil continues, the American originators of the strategy want another 1973, a (a) repetita, they remember L’oil embargo of the Arab countries against the United States and a country D’Europe and the quadrupling of the price of the price of the oil barrel. At that time, the United States was in war against Vietnam and serious litigation with L’Europe on the monetary level. August 15, 1971, president Nixon stated the suspension of the convertibility of the dollar, which meant L insolvency’of the dollar quite simply since this one N’had more L’equivalent-but, the Americans not being able to answer the world request for L’gold. For the first time in 1971, the current balance was adverse, and went S’worsening the following years. March 12, 1973, with the monetary conference of Brussels (7), the new countries of the EEC maintain the " currency snake " (2,25 of margin maximum), but the European central Banks are not forced any more D’to absorb important amounts of dollars. C’is the undulation of the currencies.
In October 1973, the war israélo-Arabic makes irruption. A few days after, the Arabs issue L’embargo and the quadrupling of the price of the barrel. If this war allowed the Arab countries double objectives : 1. to force an embargo on L’America for D’to require an equitable solution with the war, 2. to increase the prices of oil to mitigate the inflationary push which S’is developed in Occident following the monetary crises of 1970 to 1973, for the Americans, this war D’October 1973 was necessary even vital. The rise of the oil courses was to force the European countries to massively buy dollars for the payment of their oil imports. Consequently green paper emitted without real counterparts since the pay of the American current balance was overdrawn, the United States could again impose their economic and monetary domination.
In 2002, a former ambassador of the United States (8) in Saudi Arabia declared this at a commission of the American Congress : " what the Saoudi will have achieved of more remarkable, on the historical level, will have been inter alia D’to insist that the price of oil continues D’being in dollars, partly by friendship for the United States. With the result that the American Treasury can emit currency and buy oil, a single prerogative compared to the other countries. "
7. SCENARIOS OF WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Is qu’war in the Middle East ? All contributes to admit that the war is irreversible in the Middle East. The tensions are such as L’one is turned on the American side or the Iranian side, Syria being in L’œit cyclone, the civil war in Iraq N’offering any alternative as long as American troops N’did not evacuate the territory… especially with the new doctrines of L’American administration : " the long war ", only the " war " can désenfler these crispations, and to bring in the short run solutions. Thus on the basis of principle qu’a war prepares D’as much as what S’passed to Lebanon has surprised the whole world, a bombardment planned, methodical, considering the destruction caused during 34 days. The road system and bridges, power stations, airport, concerned announce already the color, consequently one can understand that this N’is qu’a part D’a plan already in execution. The hesitations of the European countries to reinforce the FINUL of 13000 men prove fear to see their men taken out of vice in a very probable war. One can thus consider that the war in the Middle East is irremediable, consequently which scenarios are possible ?
1st Scenario. A frontal attack counters Syria by Israel, to destroy the economic and military potential Syrian while using of the pretext which Syria and L’Iran rearm Hezbollah.
Two alternatives :
1. If L’Iran intervenes in the conflict, the Americans will find there an occasion unhoped-for to attack L’Iran.
2. If L’Iran N’does not intervene, the war D’Israel with Syria presupposes that conflict N’did not yet gain its total extension, therefore a third and last phase remains still course, C’is L’Iran.2nd Scenario. Même pretext : Syria and L’Iran rearm Hezbollah. A frontal attack by Israel aims at the same time Syria and L’Iran. L’Iran uses its missiles long-range Shahab III on the Israeli cities of Such Aviv, Haifa, of Beersheba, D’Eilat, and on the Israeli nuclear complex of Dimona. A frontier incident between L’Iran and the troops American in Iraq being used as pretext, will be enough in the United States to launch its offensive against L’Iran. L’Iran would immediately send its missiles Shahab I and II on the American Green Zone in Baghdad. The war is generalized in Lebanon by the means of Hezbollah and even of L’armed Lebanese (15000 men stationed with thePlain ones. Let us not lose sight of the fact that L’Iran makes border with Russia by the Caspian Sea, a window to be provided out of weapons. Russia signed with L’Iran a contract of 700 million dollars on the sale of 29 ground-to-air missiles Tor-M1 in Iran at the end of 2005. The contract signed in accordance with the standards of the international law relates to the purely defensive weapons which cannot be useful for the attack. The modernized missiles of fifth Tor-M1 generation are able to destroy the planes, the helicopters, as well as the ballistic missiles and the drones. Tor-M1 have more extended range and can reach targets at an altitude of 10 km. Moreover, the Tor-M1 missiles were equipped with a system more operative antijamming.
3rd Scenario. The United States attacks L Iran’directly. Scenario absolutely to be excluded, the United States not qu’they do not want confrontation direct, rather seek to give each other a legitimacy to the eyes of L’international opinion. As for L’arms nuclear with tactical weapons with low power with less than 1 kt, it estabsolument to exclude for several reasons, D’access : 1.Ce what would think 1,2 billion Moslems on strike nuclear. 2. L’Iran makes border with Russia, therefore a major constraint for the United States with the second world power (radioactive fallout, risk D’a veto on L’use of L’arms nuclear at its borders in the theatre of war). 3. Most important. N’let us not forget especially that L’Iran, Syria, Lebanon are only jokers in the American strategy. The United States makes the war by despair of cause, they destroy in L’hope to preserve the exorbitant… privileges of the dollar. An American nuclear striking with tactical weapons is to be arranged in the psychological warfare.
Doesn't this being, our study S’interest in what will occur in the field of the military operations nor on L’evolution in the theatre of war, but how " to stop the war diplomatically ? ".
8.HOW ARRETER THE WAR? ACTION DECISIVE OF The ARAB COUNTRIES
All contributes to say that since the theatre of war is in the camp of the Arab countries, and these Arab countries hold L’black gold, the master cards which will beat L’order of the world are among Americans, neither among Chinese, nor among Russians and even less at L’European Union, they are among Arabs. One well that as of the conflict gains in extension, the strait D Ormuz’is surely blocked, the war makes rage, which price thinks will have the oil barrel then ? 120 dollars, 150 dollars, 200 dollars, more ? The prices will explode with the great joy of the Americans – massive mobilization of the green tickets for oil, therefore a double objective : to finance the deficit of the American currant account and to create a dollar gap, C’be-with-statement its scarcity in the money markets would involve its appreciation, and finally to be released from China (the yuan). Will the Americans have achieved their goals ? C’is this qu’they can perhaps believe, S’it N’does not have an Arab response there from another economic… and monetary point of view.
D’start will be able we to say that C’is the opposite which will arrive, the thinks American tanks should not forget qu’it there currently has a strategy world, multilateral, each nation or groups nations such as for example the group of Shanghai Russia-China-India on the military level, are projected in L’scene of world affairs. Let us point out qu’with L’NATO in Afghanistan, China is strategically encircled – Is and western. The Arabs are not remains about it on the strategic level, more and more they control the international, economic and monetary wheels.
As of the first days of the war especially if it takes L’width, the Arab League can proclaim an embargo against the United States, the first power will raise the shoulders, D’different country can provide him oil as in 1973. But this time, the similar strategy of 1973 is exceeded. Not need D’embargo, the strategy can portersur another sphere much more insidious, more frightening, more destroying than the war even, they are the Arab reserves in dollars.
Let us suppose that the Arab countries maintain the currency of invoicing of oil in dollars, and C’is in their interest and not as certain European countries and Moslems recommend it : " to make out oil in euros ". With 200 dollars the barrel, the Arab surpluses will explode. Also let us suppose that all the Arab countries decide to transform a good part of their reserves into dollars, prisoners with L’interior and L’external, in euros, yen, in roubles on the international markets. What will it occur ? The dollar will lower… L’euro of 1,28 dollar will pass in the days which follow at 1,50, then to 1,75 dollar, and more. The Arabs will have creates a monetary crash world-wide. The dollar in free fall, reactions of China and Japan and finally of all the emergent countries : C’is panic. In front of the fast devaluation of the dollar and the fear of seeing the reserves in dollar melting, any L’Asia follows and throws its dollars on the markets. C’is a true world monetary embargo which S’will found against the United States. Worse than the crisis of 1929. Nothing will stop the fall of the dollar… except if, before general panic S’does not install and that the price of the barrel is not carried at risked tops, the Americans negotiate with the Arabs… It is clear that the Arabs will put all their weight in the negotiations and will register in more of the problems of the war, the fate of L’Iraq and a bill book for the proclamation D’a Palestinian State.
Obviously C’is quickly known as in a writing, reality is very different on the ground. And if Arabs N’do not have the notch to carry out their strategy, to defy the super power seems to them hazardous, and if the war is prolonged and the oil courses start to threaten L’world economy within which there is the Chinese engine, it will be then China which will take over. Doubly penalized by the extreme rise of the course of the barrel and its during the dollar, China will risk an economic recession like was Japan in 1974 and 1975 after the first oil crisis. Consequently, it will put all its weight to save the parity of combat of its currency at least to maintain it on an average level, it will try to modulate the big rise of the dollar due to the massive mobilization of the green tickets for oil, by decreasing its strong reserves of exchanges in dollar to the profit D’different international currencies. For Japan, the yen being a convertible currency, the big rise of oil combined with the rise of the dollar, even if a depreciated yen gives an advantage of commercial competitiveness, will burden its commercial surpluses and, to transform its surpluses into trade deficits as in 1974 and 1975. Consequently, Japan will may find it beneficial him also to convert a part of its reserves into dollars in euros to limit the rise, to even depreciate the exchange value of the dollar, consequently to make the oil bill less expensive. Moreover any L’Asia can join to this movement to choke the dollar.
In any case, which is known as separately for the Arabs, China, Japan and L’Europe qu’one N’did not quote, it also is penalized by the rise of the courses of oil, can jointly be made, all the parts have to lose in case D’explosion of the courses of oil and the rise of the dollar, if the war had been suddenly prolonged.
Whatever the L’exit of the war, the United States N’will not leave there unscathed… it is not very probable that the dollar is hoisted at tops as those which followed the second oil crisis (1980-1985). One today includes/understands’aujourd in which context S’registers the war in the Middle East, this futurology precisely is initiated with an aim of showing the hidden faces of the conflict aujourd’today in progress in Lebanon, and what can result if the conflict would gain in extension. The payment of the political problems to the Close relation and the Middle East by diplomatic way tending more and more to break up, the Arab countries, with declining political régimes, nondemocratic, would represent, S’they did not move, of the easy preys for the first world power, likely D’being dislocated in the medium term.
A last word, this one for L’Algeria. L’Algeria awakes. With the amendments of the law of hydrocarbons and L’alliance strategic of Sonatrach with the gas giant Russian Gazprom, if that is checked, they will give him a new international stature, in report/ratio with its people, his geography and its history.
Medjdoub Hamed
Researcher
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