In an interview published on August 30, 2006 in the newspaper the World and heading " the probability D’a recession of L’American economy in 2007 is from now on of 70% ", Nouriel Roubini, economist of the White House under BilI Clinton and professor with L’university of New York, made L’warning that, although the federal reserve of the United States could have hoped for a " landing carefully " lorsqu’it put a term at its series of rise of rate D’interest, the decision came too late and reserves it makes now vis-a-vis with a recession. It argues its thesis by the data of L’economic service Conference Board which announced, Tuesday August 29, which L’index of confidence of the American consumers had fallen in August – it is from now on on its low level of L’year. In the United States, it wire-drawer which the statistics are disastrous on the market of L’real, a strong fall of the confidence of the consumers and a significant reversal of the automobile market. For this market, the sales of cars are a good indicator of the business cycle, they are falling, which N’is not disconnected from the real deceleration. A part of the decline of the automobile market comes from the fall of the utility sales’D, used by the building contractors. All the economic indicators show that the probability D’a recession becomes increasingly strong. According to M. Roubini, the American recession will be started by three irresistible forces : the deceleration of the market of L’real ; higher prices of oil and higher rates D’interests. The American consumer, carrying already the burden D’a high debt and real wages with the fall, will be struck hard by these shocks. He informs that the effects of the recession in L’real will be more serious than those which followed L’bursting of the technological bubble into 2000. " the American recession, this longer and major time qu’in 2001, will last throughout 2007 and will affect the rest of the world. "the reason is that the property constitutes a part much larger of the richness D’a household than of the actions in technology and qu’approximately 30% of L’increase in employment in the United States since the recession of 2001 is connected to L’real (1). The risks of recession in the United States are thus real. However, if the economists are divided on the American growth, they all are unanimous with saying that L’American economy is in loss speed. In the forecasts for second half of the year, the growth rate is re-examined by the international institutions with the fall, around 2,5%. What thus appears, according to these financial analyses, qu’it N’does not have there to be strictly accurate brutal reversal of L’American economy, it would seem that L’economy is robust, able D’to absorb the shock related to the cooling of L’real. Moreover, the EDF still has margins of manœuvre by raising 17 times its rate directing since June 2004. There is also this new phenomenon, L’inversion of the curve of the rates D’interest which always preceded an economic catastrophe. It has just occurred in the United States : last August, the level of the rates D’interest in three months exceeded on average that of the rates D’interest 10 years. Normally, the rates of the 10 years obligations are higher than those of the two years, one year obligations and less. However, L’inversion of the rates D’interest is sufficiently revealing loss of confidence of the investors on L’American economy which require greater allowances for risk. These contributors of capital can fear that L’inflation is the only exit to remove the weight of L’public debt.
In Singapore, 19 last September, the general manager of the IMF, Rodrigo Rato, has informed qu’" with a growth rate from some 5% for four years, which should continue on this way in 2007, the planet can enjoy one era of strong growth and D’inflation contained such qu’one N’had not seen any since the years 1960. But it should not S’deaden on its bay-trees, whereas the cycle of growth of L’world economy could precisely " ‘‘be turning’’ ". It raised that the last meeting of this type on the Asian continent had taken place in 1997, at the precise time where " an economic crisis was profiled in the area ", which S’was finally balanced by " immense losses for the economies and the populations ". Admittedly, the continent finally left there " more extremely ", thanks to reforms qu’it S’is prescribed with L’helps of the Fund and L’Asia S’is aujourd’today metamorphosed in " the most dynamic area of the world ", it observed. But for Burgundian François, economist chief of the World Bank, " it are healthy to remember to which speed the conditions can change for the emerging markets ". Always according to M. Rato, " the door towards a new cycle of growth is opened ", in condition however that the world finds its faith towards the multilateralism, put with evil lately. More concretely, that means that the governments must at all costs save the negotiations of Doha with L’world Organisation of trade (OMC), broken down since months " As regards trade, the world will advance towards more growth and better opportunities is to go to move back towards a narrow nationalism. We should not rock us D’illusions by thinking qu’it exists a comfortable intermediate zone ", it added. Worse, S’it was to indeed yield to the sirens protectionism, the world would be found even more vulnerable to the two other principal economic risks identified by the IMF, C’be-with-statement L’inflation (and its procession of rise of rate D’interest) and especially the risk of financial crisis in the event of brutal outcome of gigantic imbalances between continents. The president of the World Bank, Paul Wolfowitz, abounded in his direction, calling with the " compromise " on behalf of each one, and quoting by name the Americans, Europeans and the developing countries.
L’former Minister for Finance American, Larry Summers, considers with caution calms apparent world financial markets, comparing it with the peace which preceded the crises by the years 1990. Imbalances which threaten aujourd’today world financial stability have their source in the American debt. The United States is the country more involved in debt planet. Their foreign debt, in terms of assessment of the international investments, S’raises to 3000 billion dollars at the end of 2005, approximately a quarter of the GDP of the United States, according to the Bank for international settlements (BIS). If the American debt increases, C’is because of its enormous deficits, running and budgetary. In 2005, the current account deficit reached more than 800 billion dollars US, that is to say 6,4% of the American GDP. That accounts for about 1,5% of the world GDP. Many are those, N Roubini (2005) in particular, which count on a deficit running American D’approximately 7% of the GDP in 2006 and 8% in 2008, under L’assumption D’a significant correlation between the imports and the growth. However, if one looks at L’historical of the current account deficits (2), it N’always was not thus. In 1971, the current balance recorded a deficit lower than 1% of the GDP and it was quickly reabsorbed, the current balance being become again positive in 1973. After 1975, another current account deficit appeared, nearly 1% of the GDP, it was cancelled in 1980. In 1982, again the current balance becomes negative – American recession –, the deficit of no one passes to more than 300 billion dollars in 1987, that is to say approximately 3,4% of the GDP. C’was L’era of the reaganism. It is necessary to recall at that time the exceptional situation of L’American economy and the economic characteristics which depicted it are : 1. An American domestic expenditure which exploded (to remember the Star Wars which required an amazing budget) ; It is necessary to await the agreements of Plaza (1985) and the agreements of the Louvre (1987) so that the parity of the dollar returns at the rate of exchange of 1980. The fall of the dollar, which stimulated exports and slowed down the imports, combined with the dividends garnered at the time of the war of the Gulf in 1991, will allow to reabsorb the deficit completely running in 1991. But since 1992, again the deficit running is in rise. Between 1993-1994, it S’raises to 200 billion dollars. Its doubling intervenes in 2000, nearly 400 billion dollars. In 2004, it exceeds triple, 668,1 billion dollars. In 2005, the American current account deficit quadruples, it is to 804,9 billion dollars. In 2006, the forecasters L’estimate at 1000 billion dollars.
L’interdependence between China and the United States N’is more one mystery. L’export of the products of the first makes it possible to finance the debt of the second. What wants to say that more the United States imports goods and services of China, more they S’involve in debt. More China exports and ready dollars in the United States, more it S’enrichit.Cependant, this play of mirror between the United States and China N’was not always thus. It is necessary to recall qu’to the time of BilI Clinton, the capital which entered to the United States were especially flows D’foreign direct investments (IDE) and placements in actions in a context of sustained high growth. In 2001, after L’bursting of bubble Internet, the important entries D’IDE and of placements in actions deprived in source D’Europe were folded up. This backward flow should S’have accompanied D’a reduction by the American deficit running, but L’interdependence of the economies American and Asian ordered that the Asian countries, depend on the American market, continue to finance the current account deficits of the United States. Thus, by avoiding a financial crisis in the United States, they S’ensured of the American market for their exports. One includes/understands then why China accepts D’to accumulate credits in dollars thanks to the commercial surpluses of its trade balance and their placement in obligations and American goods of Treasure, apart from any micro-economic consideration of couple risque/rendement. Aujourd’today, among the principal creditors of the United States in Asia, three countries : Japan, Korea and China at the head are in fact of the creditors Nets. There are obviously the exporting Arab countries oil whose considerable surpluses in dollars are also invested in the United States. For the Asian countries, especially for China and less for Japan whose currency is convertible on the money markets, the office plurality of the considerable amounts of reserves in dollars enables them to preserve the same rate of exchange between their currency and the dollar and to preserve thus intact their competitiveness. For the Chinese currency, the yuan (or Renmimbi) S’exchanges since 1994 at the constant rate of 8,28 yuans for a dollar. It is necessary to wait until on July 21, 2005, that is to say eleven years later, so that, vis-a-vis with the repeated pressures of the United States and on L’European Union to revalue its currency and with fear that S’set up protectionist measurements of these countries to its foreign trade, China decides to revalue its currency. A revaluation of 2,5%, the rate passed in August 2006 to 7,9772 yuans for a dollar, with a fluctuation of 0,3% for the international currencies except for the American dollar. Measure nevertheless considered to be insufficient by its partners.
The governments and the central banks D’Asia, the private investors, Washington and Wall Street may find it very beneficial to avoid a financial crisis. Indeed, the deputy deputy minister principal Mark Carney of the ministry for Finances, in its speech made in front of Toronto Society of Financial Analysts, 23 November 2004 (review of the Bank of Canada) written on this subject : " the recycling of the commercial surpluses in titles of American Treasure maintains the outputs on low levels. In their turn, the weak rates D’interest support the prices of the credits with L’helps whose the households finance their consumption (mainly turned towards L’acquisition of cheap Asian property). The end of the purchases of dollars by the Asian countries would abruptly slow down the investments in the United States and growth of L’American economy (because of the raising of the rate D’interest), while L’appreciation of the green ticket which S’would follow would carry a hard blow to the sectors D’export Asian. "L’former Minister for Finance of BilI Clinton, Larry Summers, described this situation as being" L’financial balance of terror ". Thus, in the event of rupture of L’balances, everyone would lose there. A financial crisis between the United States and L’Asia would involve a world crash, as much the rich countries that the poor countries would suffer, it will show million people to unemployment and L’destruction of the billion dollars D’financial credit. L’balances precarious, the countries D’Asia favoured take obviously care not to precipitate a crisis. As for the private investors, who hold a significant part of the credits on the United States, they are not also inclined to undergo losses to preserve an unstable balance of terror. The companies of broking supervise the precursory signs of the " critical point " where the progressive fall of the value of the green ticket would lead to L’abandonment of the dollar. The least wind can unchain a panic in the money markets of the world.
The development of imbalances between L’Asia and the United States make fear a disordered and uncontrolled correction financial flows. Indeed, if L’offers increasing public titles has, up to that point, absorptive by massive purchases of the non-residents, in particular the Asian central banks, without that not weighing on the rates D’interest American and world, it should be said that the low level of the long rates appears at the same time the vector of the world growth but also the source of these imbalances. Indeed, the question arises jusqu’with when ? The deficit running American S’is reabsorbed once in 1980, one second time in 1991, but since, the deficit running is in free fall. In countable terms, L’difference between L’saves clear and L’investment American Net is equal to the deficit of the current balance, mainly the trade deficit. But in addition qu’there is a désépargne households (the rate D’saving is aujourd’today negative), which breaks L’balances and causes a flow of dollars in direction D’foreign agents compensated in return by an surge of dollars by these same agents in American titles, this process started for five years has been generating a new situation. It poses the problem of the soutenability of American imbalances which lies in L’absence of clear limits of L’increase in L’debt compared to the growth. If jusqu’now the debtor position of the United States N’did not pose many problems contrary to the other countries like Brazil, Korea or L’Algérie, which them were condemned to accumulate hard currencies to refund their loans, the things risk to be turned over and involve the United States with painful choices. The United States always received more D’interests and of dividends of world qu’they N’paid some. The American clear foreign debt is the difference between all the assets from abroad in the United States (Treasury bill, actions, deposits carried out in the banking structure, real goods, foreign IDE in productive installations created or acquired on the national ground) called passive and of the American assets in the world or credits. The data of the reserve féderale (3) show that the assets of the United States are assembled gradually from 11% of the GDP in the years 1950 to 41% in 2004-2005. On the basis of lower good at the beginning of period, the assets of the rest of the world will catch up with the level of the American assets in 1985, to 23%. But starting from this date, the rise of the assets of the rest of the world on the United States is marked and in 2005, will finish to 82% of the American GDP. L’difference between the two assets expresses the clear financial position of the United States with respect to L’foreign. Jusqu’in 1985, this country more had D’asset on L’foreign that this last on the United States. In 2003, L’surplus of the foreign assets reached 40% of the production of the country ! If the United States remains profit Nets of incomes D’investments of the world (30 billion dollars in 2004, after 46 billion in 2003) because of the output higher of the American credits held than L’foreign, a deterioration of their position nevertheless is awaited in the short run. Indeed, L’stressing of L’difference between the American assets and their rough engagements tends to make decrease this creditor position of the United States. L’OECD estimates that this balance (4) will be very slightly overdrawn in 2005, passing to - 0,2 % GDP in 2006. The United States would be then payers Nets of income of factors.
Did question qu’one pose on imbalances of L’American economy jusqu’with when ? The deficit running American S’is reabsorbed once in 1980, one second time in 1991, but since the deficit running is in free fall with in addition a negative clear foreign debt. Two explanations to L’appearance of these great imbalances and to important modifications qu’knew the international movements of capital. The first wire-drawer of the " increased flexibility " of flows of world capital, thesis supported by Alan Greenspan, L’old chair American federal Reserve, Mark Carney and John Helliwell of the Bank of Canada. The second, of L’setting-up D’a new international monetary order, " new Bretton Woods " which S’car-would maintain, whose most famous defenders of this thesis are Mike Dooley, David Folkerts Landau and Peter Garber, of Deutsche Bank. Two interpretations are tempting and both to tell the truth give a complementary vision from what really passes world-wide. A concrete evaluation of the world situation is likely to light us on what is tightened potentially in the very near future, C’be-with-statement in 2007. For L’hour, we can say without being mistaken qu’it there have a lull from the economic point of view world compressing of the oil barrel, weak evolution of the dollar, pause of monetary tightening by the EDF –, the cause is that L’American administration is concentrated on the election campaign in November than on its economy. The elections semi-mandate will redefine the American political scene on November 7, 2006, with the renewal D’a third of the Senate and L’together of the Room of the representatives. The stakes of this election are full of consequences, in particular with regard to great engagements of Washington jusqu’at the end of the second mandate of George W. Bush. The true economic play will not begin qu’in 2007 and the various actors under the pressure of the news gives economic and of the threats of war which persist – L’test nuclear of the North Korea and especially the tension between the United States and L’Iran on its complete program D’enrichment of L’uranium –, will continue objectives and a priori incompatible.
Essential question qu’one must pose : is qu’L’world economy in 2007 ? And correlatively, how will L American’economy evolve/move ? The whole world has the eyes turned on the first economy of the world. D’it depends stability and the economic growth as D’it can come from large clouds on L’world economy. And these precursory clouds unfortunately exist and are quite present. In an economic situation marked by a strong degree D’uncertainty, the best means to try to encircle L’world economic evolution is to multiply lightings. Indeed, by studying several scenarios and by showing the trend scenario, one will have deciphered L’muddle which surrounds the continental current stakes and which more is, gives elements D’appreciation some on gives world. The stakes are not only economic but have also a great strategic importance for the first world power.
The first scenario which appears is what a number D’economists count : the EDF (American reserve) will lower the rate D’short interest and C’is this qu’énnonce L’former economist of the White House, Nouriel Roubini, in its interview : " the EDF made well lately cease raising its rates D’interest. Because it will have to lower them D’here to the end of this year 2006, lorsqu’it will see being profiled the spectrum of the recession. Even if its action is not sufficient for L’to avoid. "are A a question of the newspaper the World," Which the signs D’a forthcoming recession ? ", it answers : " the EDF, itself, uses as indicator to evaluate the probability D’a recession the slope of the curve of the rates D’interest, C’be-with-statement L’difference between the rates D’long-term interest and those in the short run. "This model gives a probability of 44%" D’of having a recession in the United States. If the slope of the curve is reversed, C’be-with-statement which the long rates are lower than the courts, C’is that the markets S’wait a fall of the short rates. And if the short rates drop, C’is because, at the time D’a recession, L’inflation decreases and that the EDF lowers its rates D’interest. This signal is a very good barometer of the recession. "Obviously, this scenario is possible, since the American central Bank has the role D’of ensuring the price stability and the full employment, therefore L’obligation to facilitate the economic growth, contrary to the European central Bank which N’aims at that the" price stability ". But, in this case of precise figure, the situation is complex, EDF N’does not have that the economic growth like objective, but to consider in its strategy qu’a growth on funds D’pronounced debt, a foreign debt which develops quickly following a digging of larger deficit running in 2007 N’forecasts anything good for L’future of the United States. In D’different terms, to lower the rate D’interest runs as in January 2001 after the bubble of the technological values in 2000 is equivalent to booster rocket American consumption, without glance on medium term. Obviously, the economic growth in the United States will be in rise. In 2008, can this policy continue, but in the long term which is the risk ? Like L’implied Marc Carney, commenting on the thesis of the " new system of Bretton Woods ", it writes : " One day or L’different (with the flax of this decade), the green ticket will end up being depreciated compared to the Asian currencies, which will restore the viability of the clear debtor position of the United States. The Asian countries will essuieront a loss of capital. In the final analysis ridiculous compared to the advantages that their solid economic growth will have gotten to them based on their export. " countries of the periphery ", whose Canada, countries D’Europe and markets emerging D’Latin America, have floating exchanges. Their role limits to that D’observant interested, escaping from the supposed virtuous circle to exist between the States Unis. "Incontestably, if this scenario is of setting during three or four years in the United States, a considerable adjustment with the fall of the dollar cannot be qu’inescapable with L’horizon 2009 or 2010. Already, certain European economists and American envisage qu’at the end of the second mandate of George W. Bush, the American clear foreign debt would be appreciable and be able to approach 7000 billion dollars. Under these conditions, any possible loophole for the United States. The debt made out in dollar, in their own currency gives them an advantage contrary to the other countries which them would be in suspension of payment, the United States N’will have D’different alternatives that of monétiser the national debt. A fall of 40% of the value of the dollar compared to the other currencies would involve a fall of 40% of the assets of exchange in dollars held by the Asian countries, whose at the head China and Japan, with less qu’meanwhile feeling the wind, these countries will have just time to convert a fraction of these reserves into currencies other than the dollar. The losses would be considerable for the foreign investors, but C’is at this price which the American monetary system would develop, a massive adjustment of the dollar would deflate the current account deficits and the foreign debt, while bringing back them to values gérables. A little as it was for L’Algérie in 1994, at the time of the stand by and the devaluation of 40% of the dinar which saw the GDP losing a third of its value. Except that in its case, C’is L’Algérie which lost and not the foreigners, its foreign debt on the contrary increased, moreover the correction S’is carried out under L’the aegis of the IMF, whereas the United States D’themselves, of their own liking, L’initiative of their own monetary institutions. What Marc Carney N’did not mention, C’is that the exporting Arab oil countries as will be practically embarked in the same boat as the Asian countries in the event of crisis. Consequently, the systemic crisis will not fail to touch them, their reserves of exchange in dollars will melt like snow D’a good part of their value. In conclusion, this scenario which would involve a monetary looseness and an expansion of L’American economy is possible in 2007, but not inevitably probable because it would in the long term involve an economic crisis and serious monetarist on a world level. A loss of important confidence on the American currency as a currency of reserve and international Unit of Account could bring the large actors economic of planet to substitute another international monetary system to him. The fear of this possibility will push the Americans with a greater prudence as regards monetization of the deficits and the debt.
Second scenario Second scenario N’does not have the preference of the economists, it S’acts D’an additional increase of the rates D’interest short by the EDF. It is certain qu’a monetary tightening would have largely choked consumption and thus to take part in theory in a reduction in American deficit running. With condition however that the monetary tap S’applies to the budgetary expenditure of L’American administration. L’real which currently slows down will know a purging. However, it N’is not certain that the American military expenditure would decrease. If that were, their fall would have contributed to a signficant reduction of the American deficit. But have regard at the 725 American bases disseminated throughout the world and especially L’occupation of L’Iraq – a country in war – by the United States, the budget of defense probably N’will be that increasing. Thus a discrepancy in the objectives laid down by the American economic policy. As for the raw materials, in 2007, the prices S’will not weaken, they on the contrary will be supported, in particular the course of oil and L’gold which is to him blue-chip stock for the investors. In April 2006, L’ounce D’gold passed very close to the 600 dollars. The dollar S’will appreciate appreciably compared to the other international currencies. Although the rise of the American short rates slow and will be measured, the American deceleration S’will inevitably extend to the other economies of the world. The other central Banks especially the European central Bank will not fail to primarily follow the movement bull of the rates D’interest for two reasons : to suppress L’inflation and to avoid the European capital flight towards the American places made gravitational (better outputs), which would involve an important depreciation of the European currency, L’euro. This scenario N’does not have the favour of the economists, however, it is possible but not inevitably probable. D’as much more qu’it does not give any long-term prospect, C’be-with-statement which austerity, which measure to be taken which allow the resorption of the twin deficits (running and budgetary) and to prevent the swelling of the American clear foreign debt.
Aujourd’today, the status quo monetarist in the United States makes it possible the EDF D’to wait and to see L’future evolution of the indicators of L’American economy. The situation in the east United States with the deceleration and comes to coincide with the elections semi-mandate on November 7, 2006. In addition, the geopolitical situation is particularly alarming and, in the highest degree, is concerned the first world power. According to specialists' in geopolitics, the world became increasingly unstable " L’total instability S’is increased ". " qu’there are more open crises " and " more and more of the violent crises like this summer ", Lebanon. Resolution 1701 of L’UNO does not make it possible the temporary Force of the United Nations in Lebanon (FINUL)" to disarm Hezbollah ", but " to make respect the cease-fire, to support L’together armed Lebanese in its effort with takeover with’L with the South with Lebanon and D’to try D’to prevent the resumptions of the hostilities ". In Asia of the North-East, L’test nuclear announced Monday October 9, 2006 by Pyongyang makes fear an arms race nuclear. This test offers a good pretext for South Korea which preached jusqu’then the dialogue, to re-examine its position in research D’a solution with the nuclear crisis. In the same way the Japanese nationalist line represented by the new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe can lead Japan to re-examine its strategy on the nuclear weapons. If an arms race nuclear is started in Asia in an immediate future, C’is then finished by it American nuclear umbrella on these countries in Asia. It will not remain any more with Americans qu’to leave and close their bases in Asia. Such is L’stake that has just exposed L’nuclear test of the North Korea – a second test north-Korean N’is not to exclude. As for the sanctions issued by the Security Council in reprisals with L’nuclear test north-Korean, it is doubtful that its setting in œuvre is followed D’effects. The round of the secretary D’State Mrs. Rice in Asia from the 17 to October 22, 2006 reflects L’concern of the Americans, however it is clear that neither Peijing nor Moscow N’are upset with umbrella nuclear American in Asia. L’polished attitude of these capitals by receiving the Secretary D’State and L’absence of clear position of the latter let plane a doubt about these measurements. As for Seoul, anxious to preserve its policy of bringing together with its neighbor of North followed since 2000, jusqu has’now refused to join to L’" initiative of safety as regards proliferation " launched by the United States in 2003 (gathering 70 countries). The position of Tokyo can only join that of its neighbors. That proves, if need be, that the dissuasion offered by the nuclear umbrella in accordance with the Treaty from mutual defense made its time. Remain the nuclear problem of L’Iran. Obviously, L’Iran N’is not leaned in China. Moreover, it is surrounded of countries militarily weak, its neighbor L’Iraq is occupied by an American force of 145 000 men, laying out D’an appreciable heavy armament. Naval groups made up each one of aircraft carrier (several hundreds D’fighters) associating buildings of war (cruisers, frigates, etc.) are in all the oceans especially Indien and Peaceful. Without counting many American bases in the Middle East. L’Afghanistan is occupied by L’NATO. As for the Syrian and Lebanese part (presence D’a strong community falls), L’attacks disproportionate D’Israel against Lebanon has just shown a double objective of the American strategy. 1. To put a barrier between lsraël and Lebanon by the means D’a force of the United Nations reinforced (10 000 men) to destroy all actions of Hezbollah against Israel in the event of strike air American L’Iran. 2. To dissuade Syria D’to enter the conflict taking into account the Israeli bombardments and of the massive destruction (all the road system, bridges, etc.) in Lebanon. According to Western data's, Israel profited D’an American massive help in armaments and ammunition. What N’hardly astonishes, because attested by all the wars in the past, it S’acts in fact D’highly vital American interests on this area for the United States. What wants to say that L’Iran is practically encircled, the only window which remains to him the Caspian Sea, in the North, which connects it to Russia. Consequently, with L’test nuclear successful of the North Korea, all the ingredients are there to give a good pretext to the United States, after a media beating like that which preceded L’invasion by L’Iraq in 2003, with launching in 2007 a series of strike air against L’Iran. Without going into strictly operational and military considerations, which will occur from the world economic point of view ? Any D’access, from the very start of the war, the price of oil will go up. If the conflict gains in extension and that the strait D’Ormuz is bombarded, then blocked, the prices will explode. Which price then for the oil barrel ? 120 dollars, 150 dollars ? Nobody knows. But as oil is invoiced in dollars, there will be a massive mobilization of green tickets for the dollar. It is foreseeable that the rate D’interest court of the EDF will go up to attract the most dollars in order to recycle them, C’be-with-statement to put liquidities sufficient in the international markets for the commercial transactions of gives oil via obviously the financing of the American current account deficit. The gap of the American dollar on the markets will involve a rise of the dollar de facto. It will be quite difficult for the ECB to follow American monetary tightening. Lastly, all will depend on the rise of the oil courses, the dollar and the rate D’directing interest of the EDF. For the other geographical areas, Russia, for example, in its quality D’one of the largest exporting countries of oil and gas, will have an appreciable growth rate. Its oil receipts will explode. This surge of the dollar relates to also the exporting countries of oil Arabic. If the conflict with L’Iran perdure and the rise of the maintained oil courses, the United States will be able to refund loans and to probably grant loans to the countries whose balance of payments is adverse. They thus will increase their assets held with L’foreign (active) on their foreign engagements, the pay of the foreign debt again will be positive. A remake of the beginning of the years 1980, Reagan years. At that time, the Americans fought against the strong inflation which prevailed world-wide, following an American monetary policy very expansive since 1973, which was likely to put at evil the dollar. Aujourd’today, this N’is not L’inflation, but the deficit running coupled with the American clear foreign debt which is also likely in the long term to carry out L’American economy to the rout. L’Asia on the other hand will be under a double constraint. A considerable rise of oil strongly will chip the commercial surpluses and will involve a fall of growth. For China, the course of Yuan anchored to the dollar goes réapprécier and to involve a weaker competitiveness. This one S’will extend to any L’Asia by domino effect. Japan, although the yen will be depreciated vis-a-vis with the dollar, will be him also touched. L’world economy will be in Bern and there still, all depends on the duration of the conflict, the rise of the course of oil, the dollar and the rates D’interest world. However, there is one gives quasi strategic which is posed so that this scenario succeeds. It is still necessary that the Arab countries are D’agreement, accept that the oil surpluses resulting from the oil crash are placed at the United States ! One can forget only two Moslem countries L’Iran and L’Iraq are under American fire, without counting L’Afghanistan and Palestine. Without L’acceptance of the Arab countries, this scenario can succeed for the good reason only if one good part of the Arab oil surpluses of the Maghreb and Machrek, are invested in Europe and in Asia, the massive conversion of the dollars into D’different international currencies involves a strong fall of the dollar. Indeed, the flooded markets of dollars, the rise of the course of the barrel will be D’itself corrected by the strong fall of the dollar. With final, the puzzle concocté by the Americans S’would break down. The war against L’Iran N’will have been qu’an error. Of course, it will be probably very short or will not be at all if the Arabs would post their reserves with the American oil play. In an article " the Congress will hear George Bush on the consequences D’a striking against L’Iran " of RIA Novosti, a Russian agency, of October 3, 2006, it is reported : " the Congress of the United States charged president George Bush with presenting a report/ratio on the various scenarios and the consequences D’a possible striking military against L’Iran, according to information collected Monday by RIA Novosti near the secretariat of the American Senate. The clause making obligation with the president to present a report/ratio is stipulated in the text of the bill on the budget of the expenditure 2007 approval by the Congress Saturday and is submitted for signature to George Bush, according to the same source. The document into effect establishes’qu at the latest in the 90 days following’L come of the finance law approved by the legislator the President is held to present at the Congress a report/ratio on the objectives of the policy and the strategy of the United States towards L’Iran. "In this report/ratio of which a part will be public and L’different secret, the president will have to expose his considerations on the" role of the diplomacy, the stimulants, the sanctions and D’different coercive measurements "in L’application of the policy to L’regard of L’Iran, like" L’together of the plans of reserves of the United States relative to D’possible military operations called to support the objectives of the policy of State-Plain towards L’Iran ". As for the director of the American national information, he is written : " the document of the Congress also grants 90 days as from L’come into effect of the law, with the director of the national information, John Negroponte to present at the Congress a specified national evaluation (National Estimate Intelligence) of the potential of L’Iran. John Negroponte will have to also inform the Congress of the consequences and possible results of any military action against the nuclear program or the interests of the mode in Iran. The director of the American national information is also held D’to inform the Congress of L’state and L’advance of the Iranian program of creation D’nuclear armaments and their vectors, L’state and potential of the Iranian armed forces, including weapons of massive destruction nonnuclear and vectors of these weapons, relations of L’Iran with the international terrorist organizations and of the domestic policy solidity of L’current Iranian mode. "That in known as length of the American intentions on the nuclear program of L’Iran and that this scenario is potential in 2007, contrary with scenarios 1 and 2. Especially that the dissensions between country Shiites and country sunnites reinforce the project D’attacks Americans. Since can one say ? If not that the Arab countries in 2007 will be in the line of sight. Threatened of GMO (the Large Middle East) by the Americans, they will face the other pressures, of the countries D’Asia, China at the head, of L’Iran, L’Europe which to a certain extent will disunite itself of the United States, then of their people which will not include/understand. The negociations will converge on them, and one guesses well the difficult task for the Arab countries to leave this at the same time diplomatic and strategic guêpier. The question which will arise : Who to satisfy ? In the final analysis, the Arab countries like L’Iran and L’Iraq aujourd’today are regarded as jockeys forming part D’a total American strategy. Will be able they to be with the height and to negotiate a position which would allow them S’to leave there honourably. Difficult to say. While influencing positively by gives monetary on the war if it had been suddenly declared between L’Iran and the United States, they would be grown, in the contrary case, C’is all the credibility of the Arab countries which will suffer from it with L’world scale. Disastrous, incalculable consequences or on the contrary favorable continuations, in spite of the war and the destruction, being able to open the way with the payment of the crisis in Iran and the other hanging conflicts (Iraq, Palestine). Here what awaits the Arab countries in 2007. Beyond all, the Americans cannot all envisage, it remains the " imponderable ones ", as in August 2006 during the war in Lebanon, the victorious exit of Hezbollah on Tsahal, one of the most powerful armies of the world. In any event, L’world economy is aujourd’today... on the wire of the razor. Never situation N’will have been more dangerous than that D’aujourd’today for the United States. It would recall L’the USSR in years 1980 before its collapse in 1990. Certain European commentators make go up the American situation at the years 1940, except qu’aujourd’today, the danger is much taller with the rise to power of L’Asia. To conclude, which drives the American strategists at this beginning of century, this N’is not so much L’use of L’energy nuclear to fine soldiers – the question which is posed, one N’does not export oil for then importing L’gasoline, C’is a little what is played in the field of nuclear materials – but rather the decline of the American power via its economy, where at a close horizon, L’entire Occident will have to take into account L’Asia. Where all the institutions (the IMF, the World Bank, Security Council, etc.) will have to be reformed for a balance righter with L’Asia, Arab world included/understood. Asia which represents two thirds of L’humanity. Medjdoub Hamed Bibliography : 1) the USA : L’extent of the real deceleration starts to become worrying, AFP, August 23, 2006 Bonds :
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