OIL AND FINANCES

 

Monetary war enters the two banks of L’Atlantique

 

The management of the world economic crisis, generated by the oil crash of 1973 by the international monetary institutions, operates within the framework of a monetary system from now on null and void and multiplies conflicts which it cannot regulate.

By HAMED MEDJDOUB (*)

The American decision in 1971 to suspend the convertibility of the dollar translated already a faintness deep in the economic relations and monetarists between the countries located in the space of the IMF. If the polish­ticks put in œuvre by the insti­tutions of Bretton Woods, born in 1944, were put at the service of the rise of the post-war period in Europe and at Japan (Marshall plan, European construction, etc), as from the Sixties, these same policies with the massive surge of the dollars in Europe, were going to force the European central banks to discuss the inflationary problem of the American dollar. Indeed, the emission of this currency centered­it, which has a double statute, currency of reserve and international money of account, is determined by the United States without limitation nor regulation no, the American discrétionnaire capacity related to its monetary policy by will be consé­quent the only framework with functions­lies of the American currency. The amount of the dollar balances ac­growing itself, their effects destabilized­teurs on the national economies worsened, thus posing a pro­blème use of these dollars by the central Banks. Various mechanisms were installed, initially the standard dollar set up  gradually since 1961, and in fact since 1971, then the standard SDR which will be sub­stitué, and finally the ecu created at the regional level, within the framework of the EMS (European Monetary System). To try to thwart the invasion of the dollar, this one being overestimated, the fixed rate of exchange will make place at the rate of floating exchange. However, if ingé­nieuses these are attempts, they are not by­arrivals to call into question the monetary­systè me dominated by the States­- Linked.

1. The HISTORICAL PADDLE Of A NEW MONETARY AREA, L’UNION EUROPEAN AND MONETARY

It is necessary to await the end of the thousand-year-old­deuxiè me to attend the installation of a true monetary area in Europe, a premise with L’setting-up D’a new international monetary order. This new order, in ball­butiements it is true, but operating not less true, since a formi­dable upheaval is agitating the great money markets of the world.
  Launched on January 4, 1999, it will see all the financial markets of the eleven countries of L’Union economic and monetarist (gone from exchange, markets stock exchange and derived markets) irrevocably rocked in euros. Three days after, January 7, 1999, Keizo Obuchi, Japanese the Prime Minister, will come itself to Europe to greet the happy événe­lies, " the entry of the euro in the éco­world nomy ", which will open new prospects and for nou­calves horizons to L’together of the hu­manity. In Paris as in Rome and Frankfurt, the Prime Minister pro­poses already that the yen becomes, with the dollar and L’euro, the third pillar of a new international monetary system. As of its entry in string on the money market, L’euro in raised reflected the good health of the European economy, the fall in the price of the oil barrel included/understood on average in a fork of 10 dollars in February 1999 to 14,5 dollars in April 1999 will be combined with this juice­cès. But, as of April 1999, flight of the course of the price of the oil barrel as the continuous slip with the fall of the new European currency, the "euro" compared to the dollar, vien­will dra déchanter Europeans, and the euphoria who prevailed with the whole beginning of the advent of L’euro, will make place with the moroseness.
This reversal of situation with these two major constraints will be a sufficient index to show the roughness of the opposition which carry out holding them of L’order moné­to conceal current. From where a deaf and underhand war which will oppose the two large poles of L’Occident.

2. L' EFFORT REQUIRES OF The UNITED STATES, WITH JAPAN AND A   EUROPE BY L’OPEC

It is obvious that today, the new monetary order internatio­nal (NOMI) is not any more in gestation, but exists in fact, since avene­lies of L’euro, this one will open the way with other applicants with the nou­vel world order, probably with L’ Asia Pacifique in a nou­velle grinding which will follow, in another measurement, the Union andi­.
If one sticks to the readings of the foreign observers mentioned in the media, the courses of the prices of the oil barrel are in rise by the fact that they are caused more by the speculations of certain American financial centers than by the bus­such tanker –  OPEC –, which, him, is laid out to increase its production for little that the powers make a "effort". In fact, nobody is easily deceived, neither OPEC nor the Powers on this gives.
The countries of OPEC fear that a tension exaggerated on the prices can lead to a surpro­duction and to generate one breaks down­lies of the oil futures market and L’"effort" required is precisely this one: that the Powers accor­tooth their monetary policies and by there attenuate the financial litigation which divides them, in prospect for a stable and advantageous price as well for the consumer countries for the producer countries. Such is it my­wise oil trust and such will be still the message in September 2000 in Vienna or in Caracas with the som­puts Heads of State of OPEC.
 The litigation, it is obvious, is of order will stra­tegic. Economic and monetary, and appa­remment, for the first time of the history, L’Occident is confronted with its "problem", problem which made, since, its power: "money is ­power". The consequences of its "problem" with double edge, let us know we it, was the setting with the step of the countries of the South by a generalized debt. The mechanism is known : to fight against L’inflation, the Occident used D’a considerable rise of the directing interest rate. Serious consequences rose :
1. Generalized debt, economic rout and impoverishment of the Third World countries   
2. Bursting of the socialist block at the end of the Eighties, end of L’the USSR in 1990
3. And conversion   of China to the éco­nomy of market.

3.  NEW TURNING Of The WORLD ECONOMY.

  The dialogue on the two sides of L’Atlantique will be announced hard and difficult in the months and the years to come. Strategies of the still diffuse powers, stakes not encircled for the single one and good reason which the Americans are not yet ready to agree to the loss which made and which makes their supremacy still today, them lea­dership in the world.
Other applicants with the new international monetary order will make their appearance on the economic and monetary scene world. Strategies N’being prerogative of with­the cune power especially with regard to the currency, the nerve of the economy, a fortiori when this one settles in currency of reserve in the central Banks of the world, and especially in international Unit of Account. Aujourd’today, we have two currencies, L’"euro" and the "dollar", and both condition­nent the economic evolution my­diale by the phéno­carry out monetary that they man­do not quent to induce in the medium term. They will ineluctably involve fluctuations in prices of the raw materials, goods industrial, quoted values, they acted­ront on the balance of the balance of payments of the nations, and thus on the growth.
  To quote only one example on these fluctuations, the article of the Liberté newspaper of November 17 1999 which covered the talk of L’ex-minister of Finances to defend the bill of finances 2000 front the Parliament, and which has as a title "the alarming figures and the nightmare of Harchaoui", one reads there that if Algeria re-spreads third once its debt, them which will impose to him the international institutions will be then harder : Algeria would be obliged D’to offer in pledge 50% of Hassi My­saoud, 50% of Hassi R' mel, to resort to the compression of the effec­hairs in the Public office, the privatization of the hospitals, the university, etc. Therefore, without this oxygen puff resulting from the unexpected increase of the prices of oil and consolidated by OPEC, one can think which consé­quences Algeria would have to face when it would be confronted with neck­to vrir its national expenditure. Its budget deficit 2000, at this period, was about 220:milliards of dinars. Alarmist, the Minister for Finance would not know L’being taking into account the heavy responsibility which weighed on him, and which milked directly with becoming L’national economy.
   The facts are there and, cannot inflated for good reason qu’a person in charge for this row cannot suggest with an international­institu tion like the IMF, which has the high hand on world finances, the insuggérable, it be-with­- to say pledges of 50 % on Hassi Messaoud and 50 % on Hassi R' mel. In fact, it did nothing but bring back the economic dangers which L Algerian’economy incurred.

4.  The EURO PLUNGES, The CAPITAL FLEE

This title drawn from an article of the French review New the écono­mist, of March 10, 2000, page 36, does not show holding and bordering truths of the strategy of the powers. It does not reveal that " gives it oil" between also like disturbing parameter and destabilizer in the rela­tions economic and monetary international, nor why " L’euro plunges and the capital flees ".
  For what thus will follow, it is advised to refer itself to the article published by the newspaper " the independent Young person " between the 12 and on August 17, 2000 and which has as a title "the disordered state of the world financial machine".
  In this same article of the New economist, one reads: " the currency lost in one year more than 15 % of its value. Its fall booste exports, but it frightens the investors.
  By creating the euro, did the eleven Member States of the economic and monetary Union gain with the exchange? Such is the question put by the New economist. This 28 February 2000, to Tokyo, the single currency plunged of a blow of almost 4 % - its stronger fall since its birth - in a nearly general indifference. It is true that, for two months, the euro, of a chronic brittleness, has evolved/moved under the parity with the green ticket. And that the European central Bank is impotent to reinvigorate it. March 2, the Ministers of Finance of Frankfurt could have raised the interest rates to further make the euro gravitational " , in the same review, one reads: "But they did not do anything. The Germans, cantors of the hard currency since the Seventies, converted with the merits of the crawling devaluation ", analyzes an expert... The Nobel Prize Robert Mundella of the remainder stressed that the weakness of the single currency had been a "blessing" for the Union because it had improved the compétitivi­t-piece of the "made in Europe". But, why, despite everything these examples corroborating that the instruments exist in the event of At­jolts of a currency, the European central Bank it does not do anything to reinvigorate the euro and to make it gravitational? Is it really impotent?
  We point out the crash éco­nomic of 1987: to stop the depreciation of its currency vis-a-vis to the threat of raising of the American interest rates, FRG anticipated by raising its rate of inté­rêt directing. II is necessary to understand that a depreciation of a currency involves an escape of capital, and conversely, an escape of capital involves a depreciation of the currency. The United States finances géné­ralement the current account deficits precisely by this method, while increasing interest rate to attract L’saves world.
  Still let us recall qu’in October 1987, after the anticipated raising of the rate D’interest of FRG, the Americans, in reprisals, had threatened by the voice of secré­to conceal D’State from the Treasury, James Baker, D’a new fall of the dollar. It S’followed a general panic on the stock exchange markets, and a crash D’a great width in practically all the world money markets.
Why ? By L’increase in the money supply in dollars in the world and the massive sale of the titles in dollars. The reversal of the monetary authorities which followed in this iron arm materialized by an agreement of the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury and the German Minister for Finance to stop the fall of dollar N’did not prevent considerable losses for the investors. October 21, 1987, taken again Stock Exchanges of the world, stimulated by a fall in the interest rates in the USA, and by the intention stated of the prési­Reagan tooth to seek with the Congress the means of reducing the budget deficit. This episode shows that financial and monetary instruments exist to mitigate the deficiencies of the American monetary system. Qant with Mr. Greenspan lets know that "the federal Reserve is ready to be used as source of liquidities to support the écono­American crumb" N’was qu’a measurement to bring back confidence on the markets and thus to avoid a strong deceleration of L’American economy.
  This qu’one must underline, C’is that since the creation of a monetary area in Europe, the context changed : the euro is not any more one national currency but a currency of a great space éco­nomic, called to have the same prerogatives as the American dollar. Thus with to be medium-term a currency of reserve in banks cen­trales and probably an international money of account in the international commercial transactions. The situation of course is completely different aujour­from today, the stakes being different.
  In 1987, the deutsche mark did not seek to supplant or to compete with the dollar, straté­the gie German was more defensive qu’offensive. L’anticipation of the raising of the rate D’interest was supported by the American threat. Fearing qu’a raising of the American rate was going to result in an escape of capital except FRG, and thus a depreciation of the deutsche mark, the German central Bank took the initiative. Moreover Germany could be opposed only by its power economic and financial, by row qu’it holds in L’world economy, it is troi­sième power economic after Japan and the States­Unis.
  Then qu’with L’euro, the situation is quite different, the monetary Union is a European­puissan this multiplied from the economic and monetary point of view... D’different leaves the common currency eleven countries is open, therefore on standby that D’different European Convention country join this monetary power. The conflict aujour­of today with the United States is much more one questioning of the statute of the American dollar, and medium-term, it by­tage of the privileges of this currency centers.
 
5. EVOLUTION OF L’EURO ON The STEPS FINANCIAL

  As of its entry on the international money market, the international investors seemed decided to acquire credits made out in the new currency which offered a alternati­ve to the placements in dollar, so much so that that did not cease in­quiéter the monetary authorities anxious to prevent a too fast appreciation of the European currency which would penalize the zone while making more expensive the products of exports. But this euphoria will be of short duration, after having reached raised levels, with its naissan­this, the European currency will not have of cease to be depreciated since.
  As of April 1999, the depreciation of the euro causes the fear of the European bankers. With the exit of their meeting in Washington, the Ministers for Finance and gou­verneurs of central banks of G7 warned the chés­mar "which did not owe pous­ser the too low euro". The president of Bundesbank informed "against the erosion of confidence in the euro". At the time of a conféren­it of press, the governor of the Bank of France wanted to be however trustful: "We for­let us follow strategy of a solid, stable currency and inspiring confidence in a very firm way" quite as trustful, the French Minister for Finances thinks "that one is with lowest of the furnace­chette". For its part, the president of Bundesbank invited the markets with not "does not underestimate "  the potential of L’euro. According to him, "there is no particular reason to worry about the situation about have­ro on the foreign exchange market". While being said satisfied with the current level of the euro, the governor of the central Bank D’Italy declared that his/her colleagues and he are not therefore " with research D’a new weakening of L’euro ". D’elsewhere, one thus charges the euro to the deceleration of European growth qu’with the euphoria which had pushed L’euro on high levels. However one euro low compared to the fraud­lar present of the advantages for the European exporters, whose products become automa­tiquement more competitive because less expensive. Such was the ana­economic lysis of the situation of the single currency at the end of April 1999.
In July 1999, the euro still will oscillate around its rates low vis-a-vis with the dollar, of 1,182 with its birth with 1,0161 dollar on July 10, 1999. As long as the inflationary tensions remain weak, the European central Bank (ECB) did not have reason to raise the directing rate in the zone euro, fixed at 2,5%. This situation contrasts with that of the States­Unis where the monetary Reserve (EDF) recorded of a quarter of point, to 5%, the level of the interest rate in June 1999, in order to contain a too big rise of the prices the consumer.
  According to economic analyses', if the investors remain pessimistic opposite of the saving in the zone euro, they post in revenge a Net renewal of optimis­me of this which relates to Japan. The Bank of Japan intervened on several occasions these last weeks to counter a too strong appreciation of the yen but the moneychangers continue to push it with the rise.
  March 24, 2000, in the review the New economist, page 28, another speech, but this contradictory time, is held. One reads there: " the ECB raises its rates. It is the third rise in four months. Since October, the rates passed from 2,5 % to 3,5 %. If European Bank­cen trale wants at all costs to make go up the euro by tightening its monetary policy, it will break its growth and will make burst the stock exchange bubble.
Let us hope that its leaders use in a reasonable way them unlimited capacity. What would remain hopes of the new economy if deflation returned?  " In the same way in the daily newspaper the Barber economy of June 16, 2000, page 42 B, one reads there in the rear­ticle " Wall street, Marchés parta­gés " : "the rise of the rates weigh on the financial ones... The euro yielded ground vis-a-vis to the whole of the currencies Thursday on the foreign exchange market, but firmly remained anchored above 0,95 dollar, resisting good figures well on the industrial production in the United States... "
  All these alarmist media exits did not prevent the French Minister for Finances, Laurent Fabius, like his German counterpart, Hans Eichel, to reassure on the good health of the European economy. These verbal supports did not prevent these ministers from affirming that France and Germany, the two engines of the zone euro, souhai­tent one euro strong and that their straté­gies economic must ensure it by supporting the growth. Hans Eichel has on her declared side that France and Germany had inté­rêt so that L’euro is strong on the foreign exchange market.
  But, how to combine the verb with L’action? The problem is éminem­lies complex, gives it pétroliè­Re had also made irruption on the world economic scene. One reads in the French daily newspaper the Barber economy of August 22, 2000: "At least 20%! It is the aug­mentation of the import prices in the zone euro in April, then in May 2000. By announcing this impressive rise, Bun­desbank allotted to the blaze of the prices oil, but also to the continuous erosion of the value of the euro. The single currency lost vis-a-vis with the dollar 23% of its value of January 1, 1999.
  August 11, 2000, the euro is descen­up to 0,9022 dollar, rappro­song of its historical floor 0,8907 dollar "
  In this economic and monetary muddle of the international scene, how to include/understand the strategies of the ones and others? It is obvious that the principal actors are the large financial poles of the sphere, that it relates to the United States in first chief, currently more or less main of the world economic play, or the Union euro­péenne, as a potential competitor since it is with avene­lies of the new international monetary order or finally the Asia-Pacific zone, primarily, Japan and China. In the development of will stra­tégies powers, nothing fortuitous nor is not left randomly. All obeys an economic logic where all the blows are allowed for little that they answer the assigned objectives.
Before trying a draft of the tension fields of the strategies of the powers, it is interesting to still reconsider the review the New economist of March 10, 2000, this one gives us already an outline on a first aspect of the economic conflict which opposes the Powers : Western, D’access on the two sides of Atlantic banks and much less, Japan.

6. SECRET FILE A "DEFENSE "

  One reads there: "more worrying still: the liquidities invested by the foreigners in the zone euro move back of 15 billion euros compared to 1998. With which it fault? Frankfurt classified secret file the "defense ". However, at the beginning of February, at the time of the general assembly of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Developme (UNCTAD), charged to collect data on the movements of the capital, the mask-sex fell. In 1999, the international investors in fact precipitated on the United States and - surprised - Sweden. This State appears indeed in the second rank of the recipients of investments étrarngers, with nearly 80 billion dollars. With looking at better there, this hit-parade is not so astonishing: States -- Linked are the seat of the new economy and the Scandinavian countries are the kingdom of the high-tech... For the hour, the only ones to be pleased with the vexations of the euro are the inves­weavers in evil of capital, then­qu they can, taking into account the weakness of the rates, to borrow from conditions more interesting than in Washington. Even if it means to place at nou­calf, but in goods large dollars its­nants and stumbling, these raised euros in cheap conditions. "
  This article, in truth, summarizes with him only the fundamental aspect of the monetary litigation which opposes L’Europe to the United States since the end of Bretton Woods. The monetary crises which followed appear truths levers with the constitution D’a monetary area in Europe. Consequently one can understand that the Americans, vis-a-vis to this monetary area will not haggle over the means to put in œuvre to even weaken to burst this concurrent currency.
  As of the its advent, and the small euphoria which followed its introduction in the international system, the weak interest rate in the zone euro (2,5%) compared to the American rate, which, it, was raised to 5% in June 1999, will be raised in 2000 to 3,5% and the rate in the United States with more than 6%. By the only fact of the differential of the rates in favour of the United States, 170 billion euros ­will be exported zone euro towards Norway, Argentina and especially the United States (table of page 36 of the review) against 65 billion euros foreign investments for the Old Continent. That is to say approximately three times less.
  What could be more normal than the capital flee the zone euro towards D’different money markets if their rates D’interest are more attractive ! By creating L’euro, Europeans had envisaged this situation, which does not go back to today. The Americans, for a long time, finance their current account deficits abroad by borrowing dollars, these same dollars that they emits­taient. Moreover L’increase or the restriction of the volume of the money supply depends only on the American decision. L’impact, one S’doubts it well, C’is L’indirect action on the fluctuations of the international monetary rates of exchange, and by rebound on the stock exchange courses thus that of the real estate and the raw materials, and thus on all the world economy.

7. STRATEGIES OF THE FINANCIAL POWERS OF THE EARTH

  The aspect considering previously of the economic war being only partial, the essential problem, even capital for the European Union, are before all the diffusion of the single currency, the euro, in the various central Banks. This process is obviously long and precisely the European strategists aim at the factor time to even sit the single currency in currency of reserve in an international Unit of Account. And it is precisely where the true strategy of the other financial poles of the world enters. The strategy in the United States as with Japan and its periphery is to make stopping with the single currency. It is thus out of question which it is established in the central Banks in large quantity. For Japan, this problem has been practically solved for several years. Penalized by deflation, continuing its policy of rate zero, Japan offers to the curry trader D’to borrow yens for, at once converted into dollars, euros or book sterling, to be invested on the Western markets. Consequence : the fall of the yen compared to the other currencies makes it possible the exporting Japanese companies to remain very competitive. Moreover Bank Of Japan (BOJ) intervenes on the foreign exchange market by selling important amounts of yen counters dollars to maintain a yen devaluated.
    For the United States, and with stronger reason holding them of the international monetary order, one my­naie rival is a potential danger with the hegemony of the dollar, its implan­tation in the banks améri­caines will be its medium-term validation in currency of reserve and thus in money of account inter­main road.
  In addition raising of the American interest rates and their consequences, the escapes of capi­rate, have limits, two pro­yielded will be used:
-  the first, all the supply money made out in euro and resulting from the commercial transactions with the Union euro­péenne will massively be resold on the money markets, which implies that L’euro taken tortures some by L’Asia and L’America can only plon­ger if not to remain well in on this side dollar.
It is well the law of supply and demand as of the my­naies on the international markets which governs the currency value. Therefore, a discharge of the European currency in great quantity on the markets will involve iné­luctablement its fall. What practically explains the continuous slip of the euro since L’be 1999. Nevertheless, Europeans envisaged this case of figure, it be-with­saying the response of the other financial poles. The slip of L’euro to the fall, follow-up of near by the Bank centered­the European one (ECB), will be attenuated by a raising of the interest rate of the ECB. Essence for the monetary authorities euro­péennes is to maintain the euro in a tolerable fork, C’is the price to pay to release it monetary Europe of the American supervision.
One can include/understand then why the Ministers for Finance French and German appear trustful and exhor­tent with calms. Time will tra­vaillait for the euro and the European monetary Union. The diffusion of the euro on the money markets could only continue, it does not matter the depreciation and the retreat of the European growth, for little that the monetary parameters in forks are tolé­fires-rake. Moreover, one euro low booste European exports, therefore returns the capacities D’competitive exports compared to the other areas of the world.

8. STAKE OF OIL IN THE WAR OF THE CURRENCIES. NEW PROSPECTS FOR THE COUNTRIES FOR THE CUS

  It will appear for the Americans that even this Ge­at the central Banks barred will prove to be insufficient. In truth, that was foreseeable taking into account the economic and financial power of the European Union. Unquestionably, tèges will stra­them American could not not hold account of the factor time, favorable to the European currency.
  One can think that another average was concocté, that another – more virulent response this one for the European economy – and who consisted in using the weapon of oil. In addition, another point which consolidates this strategic response, it is that to make stopping with an unfavourable currency is not the prerogative of only one Power, the retaliatory measures by the monetary Union probably followed and did not leave the access to the banks euro­péennes, and in a restrictive way, that the liquidities in dollars necessary to the transactions on goods or raw materials like oil, made out in dollars. The Americans for a long time have an influence on oil, the war of the Gulf showed that the Americans do not haggle over any means to perennialize the seizure on this gives strategic. And one can PEN­ser that this strategy of ripos­you was prepared of long date, knowing that it would have considerable effects on the economy of the Union euro­péenne. Oil transactions invoiced in dollars, what could be easier than to raise the prices of the oil barrel by a skilfully carried out speculation!
  The producer countries of the South, involved in debt, aspired specified­lies only to this equity, little imported the challenges to them which point between two banks of L’Atlantique at the dawn of this third millenium. For them, the expiries of rembour­sement at the IMF or clubs of London and Paris, the fear of the plans of structural adjustment (NOT) to which are not confronted the countries of North, with their troop of social dramas, are the spectrum perma­nent their torments. The urgent one is to avoid urgently, which explains the different comprehension and tone­conci binding représen­tants oil trust: all OPEC swears only by the aug­mentation of the production, one  speaks even about increase of 2,5 million barrels per day, but nothing made there, the prices of the oil barrel always goes up. Today, the barrel is with 32 dollars.
  A pertinen question­you nevertheless. Which were initially the causes of this flight of the courses of oil? Did it enter the American strategy or simply it was seized with the flight, taking into account the resistance of the euro?

9. EVOLUTION OF THE COURSES OF THE OIL OF 1998 TO 2000

  We recall, at at the end of 1998, one spoke already about agreement between country of OPEC to reduce the production. Last months of the year 1998 at February 1999, the price of oil had reached its lowest price, approximately 10 dollars the barrel. In March 1999, the courses of oil approach the 14 dollars, the members of joined together OPEC the 22 of this same month, in Vienna, to which as observed teurs­the representatives except OPEC were added of Mexico, of Russia, of Oman and Austria, enté­riné the Hague Agreement of bearing 12 March reduction of the production of 2,1 barrels per day million.
  This agreement will give a strong signal to the market, which explains the increase of the course. In August 1999, the gic bar­psycholo of 20 dollars the barrel is exceeded. One speaks already about a fall of the American oil reserves. The next meeting of OPEC was fixed at September 22, 1999 in Vienna. The oil mediums think that the respect of engagements of reduction of production and the level of reduction in American stocks consolidate­stripe this evolution in rise of the courses. September 23, 1999, the oil trust recon­duit measurements of oil reduction of March 22, 1999.
  At the beginning of January 2000, the price of oil will reach the 26 dollars. The strategy adopted by OPEC seems to have much success and the current production maintained until March 2000.
  For the first time after one decade and half, the hope is allowed for the countries of the South, the countries of OPEC in tight row will be of all their weight on the world economy and will call into question the fixing of the prices by the Occident. But is this questioning, sincere seemingly, real and emanates it many large oil-producing countries? In the same way, the United States, from the very start of the year 2000, ten­for the third time will fold the countries of OPEC to reconsider measurements of reduction taken on March 22 of the past year. The president of the first power my­diale, Bill Clinton, will go as far as threatening to flood the market by opening American stocks of oil, or of rédui­Re the economic aid, if the course of oil does not go down. At the beginning of March 2000, one deploys­lies overall of emitted­the saires of the White House to the countries of OPEC is carried out drum beating to bring back these countries to better dispo­sitions. What was made at the time of the déci­Sion taken in Vienna on March 28 by the countries of OPEC: aug­mentation of 500 000 b/j according to a distribution by quota enters the countries of the trust.

10. The RISE OF The COURSE OF OIL AND The OBJECTIVES S TRATEGIQUES Of The 1st WORLD POWER

  All the forecasts, taking into account the increase in the oil production and the approach of the estival season, favoured a fall of the oil course. However, the arrived estival season, the opposite occurred, the price of the barrel of pétro­assembles it to nearly 30 dollars. At the beginning of September 2000, the course of the barrel exceeds the 32 dollars, September 6, the price of the oil barrel is of 33 dollars on the market.
  In front of this increasingly vertiginous rise of the course, which can one notice? It is that the American threats are kill and diplomatic ballet of the beginning of the year deferred to the Greek calends. Why?
  Isn't it large the inflationary danger of the American dollar in the world following this generalized rise of the course of oil and its consé­disastrous quences that one knows when the United States proceed to a monetary tightening? What did it result from it? A "wild debt" princi­palement for the countries of the South stripped of dedéfense means.
  In truth this inflation of dollar in the world allows D’to achieve at least three goals, those are eminently strategic.
  1. To pass the European monetary stoppings. The oil made out in dollars will oblige the institutions economic and financial European to seek more dollars for their purchases of oil. The single currency can nothing there, if not to more depreciate itself. One understands that this gives will profit doubly, so much with Americans qu’with the oil-producing countries.
2. A part of the oil surpluses not consumed by the oil-producing countries in particular Arab will be invested in the American money markets, in goods of Treasure, stock exchange titles (actions, obligations), etc. These surpluses combined with other foreign financial flow will make it possible to finance the American balance of payments deficits  .
3 the third objective, it is the consequence of the two precedents. C’is the policy of the strong dollar. It makes it possible the American power to direct towards it financial and monetary flows world (L’saves world). Consequently, doesn't this financial mechanism N’induce a transfer Net of goods and richnesses of the world towards the power holder of the dollar without there being produc tion­work ? Doesn't D’different leaves, this world saving give latitude yet to the American financial institutions to recycle L’surplus of the capital, which N’would not have been used for the resorption of the American current account deficits, in D’different money markets in Europe, Asia or loans for the countries of the South, obviously atrates D’interest more profitable ? N’is not this another shape of the Trade Curry, this technique which consists in benefitting from the variations of outputs between class D’active. The United States S’involves in debt in their own currency atweak rate D’interest and to invest these funds borrowed in their currency or another currency – the differential of rate of the rate of exchange can be even remunerative – atrate D’stronger interest in D’different money markets except the United States. Thanks to the policy of the strong dollar, the American investors draw from the considerable advantages from this gives monetary.

11. ANALYSES OF THE EXPERTS

  Within sight of this situation, one has the right to be posed the ques­tion: did the United States include this gives in their strategy or they seized it with the flight? Question to which it is difficult to answer so much the actors are numerous. And then, does it have importance considering the stakes which divide the Occident? Nevertheless, according to analyses', "  the rise is allotted to the speculations made by certain American financial circles on oil. The slips of certain currencies like the euro compared to the dollar, one of the principal currencies of payment of oil, is the other factor which contributes to this tension ".
  Certain experts think that the price of the oil barrel for­rait to reach 50 dollars. As for Mr. Rodriguez, president of OPEC and minister vénézuélien of L’Energy and Mines, it estimates that "even if us aug­chins the production in sep­tembre, the courses will continue to go up". At the time when there are large quantities on the market, American stocks know bottom grades, whereas the refineries améri­caines reduce their activities involving a very keen demand and thus launching the prices of the fuels.
  Two passages drawn from an economic weekly magazine and a daily newspaper nationals say of it long on this new nant­lathe of L’world economy, they reveal that gives it monetary is L’stake of conflicts between two banks of L’Atlantique.

  –  Freedom economy of July 26 to the ler August 2000:
Mr. Lorenzo Sanchez, ambassa­dor, chief of the delegation of the European Commission
"European Algeria-Union: an agreement of association in 2001".
  Maintenance:
Question of L’weekly economic " Freedom economy " :
  Will the currency of exchange in the Mediterranean basin be L’euro? Will qu’third countries to contemplate­ranéens have to gain in adop­so much the single currency of L’euro­EP?
Mr. Lorenzo Sanchez:
  The my­naie European has to become a solid currency. Its management by the European central Bank will be done in an orthodoxe way. It will be a stable currency, from where interest of sound adop­tion by the countries of the basin médi­terranéen. This stability will offer safety vis-a-vis to the fluctuations of the other currencies and will give confidence to the mic operators­écono. It could also be used as currency of reserve in the central banks of Mediterranean third countries. The interest of L’euro, it is stability in the transactions commer­ciales. I think that the European currency will have in the future a considerable place in the international transactions.
Freedom-economy:
  Which is­the concerned one for the European countries?
Mr. Lorenzo Sanchez:
  It is to compete with the dollar and to better control our inflation. We have in this moment in Europe of the problems of inflation because of the devaluation of the dollar and owing to the fact that our oil imports are made out in this currency. In the future, we espé­rons that a part of these imported­tions getic raw materials­éner are invoiced in euro. What would give much more stability to our economies. Moreover, if L’euro is used as currency of reserve in banks cen­trales of the countries of the basin to contemplate­ranéen and that it is used in the commercial transactions inter­main roads, we have the same privilege as the United States today, which, thanks to the dollar, faces the enormous deficits­ciaux commer and with the debt - it is the country more involved in debt in the world - precisely by this capacity that has the United States to return each year their commercial­challenge cit to the rest of the world.

  –  The daily newspaper " the Morning " of September 4, 2000:
In the article: "For 25 dollars the barrel", one reads there:
  "  ... As for Jean-Pierre Chevènement, who found his freedom of word after his dislocated­Sion of the government, it showed the United States to be at the origin of this raising of prices of the crude which is explained because of course, there is the growth, but also, say it, because the United States and the companies amé­ricaines as regards oil control the whole of the cycle… "
  " OPEC, itself, is conscious of this situation and will intervene if the prices of oil remain at the current level", according to remarks' of its secretary géné­ral, Rilwanu Lukman, which judge " that around 25 dollars the barrel or slightly above, the price would be right".
  Therefore, through testimonys of these senior officials, one includes/understands well L’importance of L’stake of gives oil in the world on the monetary level.
  For the word of the end, L’Algérie must impregnate stakes in the world and especially make the economy of the sterile debates and schools which do nothing but delay its insertion full and whole in the world economy, and by rebound its growth. In addition, those open way at the international financial institutions, which, by the means of the rééchelonnements and the plans of structural adjustments, will come to cleanse national finances. Isn't this there a feature of mic immaturity­écono? As, is it vital as it has an exact perception of its interests with the Powers and by-there, to trace a strategy which por­you with short, average and long term. Perspicacity, the good direction pri­lies in any debate to try to leave Algeria the economic­gold nière in which it is.
  Algeria should not especially forget that the flight of the price of the oil barrel is only of the economic situation, the effects of the economic seism, caused by the European Union applies of it­so much the third phase of the treaty of Maastricht, the ler January 1999, can last 6 months, one year, even two years, but a deal between the powers will finish by being found with the large injury of the countries of the South.
  It is also necessary to remember tissement­the aver of Mr. Richardson, correspondent special of Bill Clinton near Algeria: " to benefit from this economic clearing and to make profitable this respite for a new economic vision por­teuse ". As for antagonism North-North, it would be interesting to know which will be the future of the euro, like also the future of the dollar, which will be the futures pre­tending to the new order moné­to conceal international - a priori it will be the Asia-Pacific with Japan and China at the head, especially after the economic crash of 1997.
  Lastly, which will be the evolution of the course of the price of the oil barrel in the near future ?  How will untie this oil crash of a new kind? Front, in fact the hot wars caused it, today, they are the cold wars, the monetary wars, the quiet wars between the central monetary institutions.
  To undertake a pective study­pros would be interesting insofar as, knowing the various cases of figure which little­wind to arise on the world economic scene, the countries of the South could sit a strategy for their believe­sance. In the same way, instead of fixing itself mainly on the oil course and the fear of the slump in prices of pétro­it, it would have been more advantageous to try to also include/understand the future strategy of OPEC. It is clear that if the cohesion of the oil trust had been suddenly put at evil, in which case, it is the fall inéluc­table of the oil market. The questioning of cohesion of the trust could be only polished­tick and would have milked directly with the reports/ratios that this one maintains with the Powers. Therefore, to include/understand the interests of the ones and others, it is COM­to also take its interests, be sentiel­is it to draw its pin from the play and to leave economically unscathed. Such is the problem arising with the Producer countries of the South as it is also posed in Algeria.

Hamed MEDJDOUB
(*)Researcher
06/09/2000

NB: Bibliographical sources. For the analysis, all the data as well as the sales leaflet were drawn from daily newspapers, of reviews, nationals and international, por­so much on the economy, the foreign politics and the mic écono­reports/ratios in the world. As for the evolution of the agreements of Bretton Woods, it drawn from was rained­economic sieurs works of which that of Denise Flouzat: Contemporary economy, volume II, phenomena monetary, Thémis collection.

Notice

  A study relating to finances and hydrocarbons appeared in the Algerian newspaper " El Watan " of Monday September 11 at September 16, 2000 in heading IDEES-DEBAT, under the title  " the euro in the new world monetary order ". Slightly altered in March 2008 by the author in his site " Studies and Futurologies. International relations ", it was noted according to L’analyzes L’time, that L’flown away of the oil N barrel’did not last 6 months, one year, even two years but much more, and" nearly nine years since the launching of L’euro in 1999 ". Moreover the barrel a record moreover 111 reached dollars in March 2008 while L’euro S’is strongly appreciated and approaches D’an absolute record, one euro for 1,60 dollar. Another intruder came to complicate gives it monetary, C’is the Chinese currency, the yuan. The rate of exchange of the yuan does not reflect the fundamental ones of China. Finally the real crisis which has occurred in the United States (crisis of the subprimes) with L’be 2007, combined with the office pluralities of the American current account deficits since 1990, makes the situation economic world even more confused.

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Hamed MEDJDOUB
March 28, 2008

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