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2. China, Europe and the United States in world imbalances
In 1998, the worldwide economy entered a zone of great instability, so much the opposition of the economic situation, enters, on the one hand the major recession in which were inserted Japan (in deflation since the open financial crisis in 1991 by the bursting of the speculative bubble real and stock exchange), part of Asia (crash of the South-East Asia in 1997), the financial crisis of Russia in 1998, and on the other hand, the apparent of the European economies and American good health, tallied badly with the process of globalisation of the worldwide economy.
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3. The conflict in the Middle East, a paradigm release
“America must convince the populations of the Middle East which we are on their side, exactly as we convinced Lech Walesa, and Vaclav Havel, and Andrei Sakharov who we were on their side. What will take time. What will be difficult. We are conscious of worrying the terrorists, the dictators and the autocrats. We want that they are anxious. We want that they understand that America is today goes from there, and that we are side of those which they fear more, their own people. ”, an American néo-conservative in the French newspaper “the world” in 2003 writes.
The speech is perhaps sincere the more so as the Arab countries do not shine of democracy, but rather of a pure and hard authoritarianism. And to protest high and strong that the war with the Close relation and the Middle East is a war of freedom against tyranny, it is to fall into a reducing over-simplification.
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4.
Hidden sides of the war in Lebanon
How to include/understand the American
strategy in its escape ahead against the Arab world? And what can make the
Arab countries? Behind the famous American speech on the GMO (the Large
Middle East) and this will to redraw the geopolitics of the Close relation
and the Middle East, Washington truly seeks it to found a democracy in
these countries or, makes of it only one artifice, a powder (...)
24-26-
August 27, 2006 old Edition >El Watan
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5.
The Arab world on the wire of the razor
Worldwide economy : Futurology
2007
Which prospect for the course for the
barrel of petrol in 2007? Which will be the fluctuations of the dollar?
Which future for the worldwide economy? Won't the dead end in the Close
relation and the Middle East degenerate into armed conflict in 2007? For
four years, the whole world has profited from absolutely honourable growth
rate, even Africa recorded going rates of growth, even exceeding
5%. (...)
29-30- October 31, 2006 old Edition >El Watan
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6.
War of Korea to the Shock of Civilizations
Revisited
history…
More and more, one establishes bonds
between the wars of Vietnam and Iraq. This question taps the spirits.
Requested to say if it were of agreement with a leader-writer (1) of the
NewYork Times which had affirmed that current violences in Iraq were “the
djihadist equivalent of the offensive of the Small fireclay cup”, George
Bush answered: “It could be right. ” “It is obvious that there is an
increase in (...) More and more, one establishes bonds between the wars of
Vietnam and Iraq. This question taps the spirits. Requested to say if it
were of agreement with a leader-writer (1) of the NewYork Times which had
(...) When one thinks of the 725 American bases in the world of financing,
with average considerable logistics (maintenance, renewal of the armament,
etc) for the maintenance of their operational level, one
includes/understands why year in year out, they require a budget of
amazing financing: several hundreds of billion dollars. This budget leaned
with the American consumerism of which a good part with credit, not easily
refundable, has an direct impact on the American clear foreign
debt…
To the train
where the current account deficits and the foreign debt go and if the
United States does not make the effort readjust their economy with the
news give, it is not the clash of civilizations but rather the clash of
the US economy which will come up in four or five years, to the image from
what occurred for the ex-USSR in 1990-1991. The United States cannot live
indefinitely with credit, the external financing early or late will reach
its limits, consequently the dollar doped by the external financing risks
the same fate as what was for the Soviet rouble at the end of the reign of
the Soviet empire.
25-26- December 27, 2006 old edition >El
Watan
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7.
Futurology: Which strategy for the United States in the challenges in
progress?
OIL, THE DOLLAR, THE YUAN, OF THE
PARADIGMS
An American specialist writes
in the newspaper the World of the 08.04.03: “Now that the American
forces are in Baghdad, that it is enabled to us to place the current
events from the historical point of view. In a sense, like pointed out
professor Eliot Cohen of the university John-Hopkins, we entered the
fourth world war. More than one war against terrorism, the stake is to
extend the Arab democracy to the parts of the world and Moslem which
threaten liberal civilization with construction and the defense of which
we have work throughout the XX E century, at the time of the first, then
of the second world war, followed cold war - or third world war (…)
It is true that there is to repeat on the introduction of the democracy in
the 22 Arab States which account the Muslim world, but to protest high and
strong that the war in the Close relation and the Middle East is a war of
freedom against tyranny, it is to fall into a reducing
over-simplification. This author continues: “America must convince the
populations of the Middle East which we are on their side, exactly as we
convinced Lech Walesa, and Vaclav Havel, and Andrei Sakharov who we were
on their side. What will take time. What will be difficult. We are
conscious of worrying the terrorists, the dictators and the autocrats. We
want that they are anxious. We want that they understand that America is
today goes from there, and that we are side of those which they fear more,
their own people.” What is it today? Speech triumphant victor, which
does remain? Little thing! Force for us to note that these slogans general
public lived, they owe their rhetoric only with the euphoria of the
victory which succeeded the fall of Baghdad. This being, it is true that
America is today goes from there for aimings which have nothing to do with
the Messianic aimings which appeared in April 2003 (...).
Europeans, by creating the
euro to release themselves from the dysfunctions of the dollar and from
what results from this - US deficits -, did not think that their currency
could be used as variable of adjustment of world economic imbalances. To
include/understand this process as well strategic as economic, an
examination of the world economic situation (…)
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8.
Oil and finances. Monetary war enters the two banks of the
Atlantic
The management of the
world economic crisis generated by the oil crash of 1973 by the
international monetary institutions operates within the framework of a
monetary system from now on null and void and multiplies conflicts which
it cannot regulate.
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9.
Crisis of the American dollar. Which direction to be given to the
“American monetary serum”
A study relating to finances and
hydrocarbons appeared in the Algerian newspaper “El
Watan” of Monday September 11 to September 16, 2000 in heading
IDEES-DEBAT, under the title “the euro in the new world monetary
order”. Slightly altered in March 2008 by the author in his site
“Studies and Futurologies. International relations”, it was noted
according to the analysis of the time, that the flight of the barrel of
petrol did not last 6 months, one year, even two years but much more, and
“nearly nine years since the launching of the euro in 1999”. Moreover the
barrel a record moreover 111 reached dollars in March 2008 while the euro
was strongly appreciated and approaches absolute records, one euro for
1,60 dollar. Another intruder came to complicate gives it monetary, it is
the Chinese currency, the yuan. The foreign exchange rate of the yuan does
not reflect the fundamental ones of China. Finally the real crisis which
has occurred in the United States (crisis of the subprimes) at the summer
2007, combined with the office pluralities of the American current account
deficits since 1990, makes the economic situation world even more
confused.
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