“America must convince the populations of the Middle East which we are on their side, exactly as we convinced Lech Walesa, and Vaclav Havel, and Andrei Sakharov who we were on their side. What will take time. What will be difficult. We are conscious of worrying the terrorists, the dictators and the autocrats. We want that they are anxious. We want that they understand that America is today goes from there, and that we are side of those which they fear more, their own people. ”, an American néo-conservative in the French newspaper “the world” in 2003 writes.
The speech is perhaps sincere the more so as the Arab countries do not shine of democracy, but rather of a pure and hard authoritarianism. And to protest high and strong that the war with the Close relation and the Middle East is a war of freedom against tyranny, it is to fall into a reducing over-simplification. However, this reflexion did not leave ex nihilo, the eloquence of the author in confidence in the American power to change the world has as a source the euphoria which followed the American victory to Iraq. The tragic continuation of the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan gave the pendulums per hour. It was not any more the release but the beginning of a great tragedy for these countries, and the United States is enlisés there without much hope of exit.
If, considering the events which followed, this reflexion is prophetic, even paradigmatic not in the sense that this author thought it but in the direction of another process. The conflict in the Middle East can be one of the causes in the reconfiguration of world balance geostrategic. What the Americans pride to build the Great way the East (GMO), it probably in the long term will be built, but it will be done to the great displeasure of the United States. And it is that most incredible, it will be done not like the Americans would have liked it, but against it with what they fought.
The impulse will come precisely from the new distribution of the roles in a production process and exchanges international transformed completion. The rationality and the principle of coherence will govern the formidable changes, and by which the evolution of the Arab world will be achieved.
We are not there still, but the process is increasingly visible considering the growing interest of the powers American, European and Asian (for the latter, Russian and Chinese) for all the oil areas in particular of the zone CARRIED OUT. If not how to include/understand the searchs for Mediterranean union, or other associations with the United States or Asia, it is precisely to integrate these rich oil countries in the bosom of the powers, which, already, are opposed in a commercial confrontation on these areas. These powers are from now on committed in a logic of co-operation-competition, and consequently constrained to define their strategies according to a new grid of reading and interpretation of the stakes in this multiple, moving and unforeseeable environment become. These areas represent a major lever with the service of their respective zones of influence. But one cannot occult a fact, the Arab countries should not count on divisions of the powers like at one time, confrontation can moult oneself in consensus with the detriment of the rich oil countries, in particular Arabic.
Especially if the dollar, vis-a-vis the international pressures, ceased being “the only” currency of invoicing of oil. Two other currencies, the euro and the yuan, would share the privilege of the dollar in the monetary wording of energy and the raw materials. Since any quantity of oil imported would be invoiced in the currency of the importing country, according to whether this one is leaned at the dollar area, the euro area or the zone yuan, the Close relation and the Middle East would lose their character then geostrategic, the competitions would cease and these areas would not be considered any more vital for the United States. Considerable consequences would be generated. It would be a true revolution for these areas which suffered a long time from the competitions between the powers. A new turning in the process of universalization. Such are the reflexions on the future horizon of the Great way the East (GMO) at this beginning of third millennium.
Medjdoub Hamed
July 9, 2008
Bond:
www.medjdoub.com