In 1998, the worldwide economy entered a zone of great instability, so much the opposition of the economic situation, enters, on the one hand the major recession in which were inserted Japan (in deflation since the open financial crisis in 1991 by the bursting of the speculative bubble real and stock exchange), part of Asia (crash of the South-East Asia in 1997), the financial crisis of Russia in 1998, and on the other hand, the apparent of the European economies and American good health, tallied badly with the process of globalisation of the worldwide economy. Although negative, this process will give matter to be thought of the emergent economies, and in the years 2000, these same economies, having learned the lessons from the past, will fall under a long economic growth. Obviously, this Asian growth must much with the American engine.
If the US economy fell under a long cycle of growth since 1993, and less better for the European economy, the end of the cycle financier 1994-1998 will coincide with an major event, the launching of the euro in January 1999. International experts thought already that if Asia, concentrating a broad part of world reserves of currencies, warned itself to diversify its international wallets, to widen its rooms for maneuver vis-a-vis the economic pressures and policies of the United States, and that if this movement were confirmed and become extensive, it could make more difficult the financing of the deficit increasing of the balance of payments American and in the long term threaten the statute of international currency of the dollar. Such was the analysis which prevailed at the time.
In truth, even if the euro is used today as adjustment of world imbalances becoming increasingly structural and falling mainly on the first world economic power - the United States -, Europe, on the contrary, profits from this currency as a rampart if not as a more or less efficient shock absorber of the effects of the financial crisis and monetarist which agitate all the money markets. The oil crisis or the “third oil crisis”, is not other than the outcome of the American financial crisis and monetarist.
Any economic zone on a world level defends its interests. The United States for their economic growth, needs China and Europe. The American lever is essential for China as for Japan, it goes from there in the same way for Europe.
On the basis of these strategies, which they relate to Europe in its single currency, China in the anchoring of the yuan on the dollar or the United States in its trade deficits with China, all have part dependent in world imbalances. And precisely, there will exist between holding of the worldwide economy only one law, that only one type of report/ratio: the power struggle. With monetary Europe and the emergence of China, it will be the return of the beam which will operate an in-depth transformation in the economic relations, financial and monetary.
Contrary to what occurred in the years 1980, they are not the allies of the United States, like Japan and Europe, which finance now their deficit, but rather their competitors strategic, like China, Russia or certain countries of the Close relation and the Middle East. And one should not be mistaken, these States and other emergent economies which accumulated these last years an exceptional volume of monetary reserves and credits in dollars, and the system of “supplier credit” or of “the financial balance of terror” being only one transitory bridge for a correction, there is to bet that these countries do not wait until the breach formed by these imbalances widen to call in question all the financial and monetary configuration world. The problem will not be any more which will be the engine of the world growth, but which country or groups countries which will ensure the financial stability and monetarist of the world growth.
Medjdoub Hamed
July 9, 2008
Bond:
www.medjdoub.com